# Lakshya Jain: Split Ticket's forecast gives Kamala Harris a 53% chance of winning the presidency, and Jain says that if forced to pick a winner they'd still pick Harris. The model also gives Democrats a 53% chance of taking the House, with Democrats favored in 212 seats and Republicans in 209, while Republicans are firm favorites in 51 Senate seats and extremely likely to retake the Senate majority. **Claimed:** Oct 19, 2024 **Pundit:** Lakshya Jain — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lakshya-jain **Outlet:** Split Ticket — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://split-ticket.org/2024/10/19/temperature-check-10-19-the-signal-and-the-noise/ 13 checkable claims — 6 race winners, 3 seat counts, 2 control of congress and 2 race margins — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 13 have settled, averaging 56.1 out of 100, against 56.1 for a naive guess at the same calls. > If you forced us to pick a winner from this incredibly uncertain picture, we'd still probably pick Harris *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “by our estimates, Democrats are favored in 212 seats, Republicans are favored in 209, and 14 seats are tossups” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 45 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess - “This has allowed the incumbent to remain a 63% favorite in our forecast.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Republican Michelle Steel is facing an extremely close reelection against Democrat Derek Tran, and she currently has just a 51% chance of winning” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Our forecast this week sees Kamala Harris' odds tick down a notch, from 55% to 53%. ... If you forced us to pick a winner from this incredibly uncertain picture, we'd still probably pick Harris” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “our model currently gives her a 52% chance of winning reelection with a predicted margin of 0.3%” - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 65 out of 100, against 70.2 for a naive guess - “Republicans remain firm favorites in 51 seats” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 60 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess - “Rollins still only has a 51% chance of winning” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Indiana is moving from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Senator Mike Braun remains a strong favorite to keep the governorship in GOP hands” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Democrats now have a 53% chance of retaking the House from the GOP.” - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “giving him a 56% chance of winning reelection with a predicted margin of 1%” - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 74 out of 100, against 59.6 for a naive guess - “data points to the Senate seat in Montana returning to the Republican column this cycle” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “by our estimates, Democrats are favored in 212 seats, Republicans are favored in 209, and 14 seats are tossups” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 85 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess - “Republicans remain firm favorites in 51 seats and are extremely likely to win back the majority this cycle” - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=lakshya-jain