# Aaron Schatz: Presenting the FTN Football Almanac 2025 projections, Schatz projects the 49ers as the NFC's best team (11.2 wins) and NFC West champion, the Jaguars to win the AFC South with nine wins, the Commanders at 10.6 wins winning the NFC East ahead of Philadelphia, the Raiders at 8.3 wins, the Steelers and Cowboys both at 7.7 wins, and the Panthers last at 5.5 wins. **Claimed:** Jul 25, 2025 **Pundit:** Aaron Schatz — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/aaron-schatz **Outlet:** Around the NFL (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/around-the-nfl-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/nfl-daily/7-surprising-team-projections 13 checkable claims — 7 season win totals, 3 division winners, 2 depth chart calls and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 13 have settled, averaging 46.1 out of 100, against 48.3 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Let's say you combine that with the really easy schedule, you have a division champion. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **San Francisco 49ers to win the division** - Kind: Division Winners · About: San Francisco 49ers - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division** - Kind: Division Winners · About: Jacksonville Jaguars - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Washington Commanders to win the division** - Kind: Division Winners · About: Washington Commanders - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Brock Bowers to be 1st on the depth chart** - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “you have them in your overall DVOA projections for the year. The Eagles as the seventh best team in the NFL, So not that much different than where Washington is at five... the Panthers are dead last... You have the Saints projected to be like the thirtieth best team in the league.” - Kind: Power Rankings - Verdict: scored 30 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess - **Tre Harris to be 1st on the depth chart** - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Tre Harris, Los Angeles Chargers - Verdict: scored 75 out of 100, against 83.33 for a naive guess - **Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with 7.7 wins** - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: Pittsburgh Steelers - Verdict: scored 54 out of 100, against 85 for a naive guess - **Las Vegas Raiders to finish with 8.3 wins** - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 35 for a naive guess - **San Francisco 49ers to finish with 11.2 wins** - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: San Francisco 49ers - Verdict: scored 84 out of 100, against 5 for a naive guess - **Washington Commanders to finish with 10.6 wins** - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: Washington Commanders - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 9 wins** - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: Jacksonville Jaguars - Verdict: scored 20 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Dallas Cowboys to finish with 7.7 wins** - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: Dallas Cowboys - Verdict: scored 86 out of 100, against 85 for a naive guess - **Carolina Panthers to finish with 5.5 wins** - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: Carolina Panthers - Verdict: scored 50 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess ## Who this take is about - San Francisco 49ers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/49ers - Jacksonville Jaguars — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jaguars - Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/commanders - Brock Bowers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/brock-bowers - Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/raiders - Tre Harris — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/tre-harris - Los Angeles Chargers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chargers - Pittsburgh Steelers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/steelers - Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cowboys - Carolina Panthers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/panthers ## What others said about the same people - Nate Gosney on Daiyan Henley: After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/60272861-4ad0-4749-b36a-dcdf09b9213f (scored 0) - Parker Hurley on Khalid Kareem: Hurley predicts the 49ers will release Khalil Kareem when Nate Hobbs is activated and cut Brandin Cooks when C.J. West returns, while arguing Sebastian Valdez won't be the one let go and no cornerback will be cut. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5a729417-69ee-493a-9bec-d905fd1a7082 (scored 0) - Jordan Dajani on Washington Commanders: Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/46f7646f-2c64-4827-a522-67975af79fb6 (scored 95.24) - Tyler Sullivan on Washington Commanders: Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1bb32676-c3b3-4b8e-8a03-b58396cf98bf (scored 100) - John Breech on Washington Commanders: Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9fddc8e1-3823-4252-bdd7-f81ef11b1da3 (scored 90.48) - Jordan Dajani on Washington Commanders: Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e2531f3a-2140-40ac-9831-5ff8224e090f (scored 95.24) ## More season win totals The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Nick Wright on Chicago Bears: Nick Wright lays out their season win-total picks (overs on Jaguars, Bears, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Raiders, Falcons; unders on Bengals, Colts, Broncos, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers), playoff berth and miss calls, three division winners, a Chiefs-over-Buccaneers Super Bowl exacta, and five Week 1 picks. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5049c576-4d69-4d73-a0ba-6296e5e50ff2 (scored 100) - Nick Wright on Baltimore Ravens: Nick Wright predicts Shedeur Sanders stays behind Dylan Gabriel on the Browns depth chart, forecasts a season where Flacco is benched a third of the way in, Gabriel then fails, Shedeur then fails, and Cleveland drafts a quarterback next year. They also make a long list of win-total, playoff and division calls across the AFC North and beyond. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4e17eca2-e154-41f3-b116-389f8335f9c8 (scored 0) - Nick Wright on Kansas City Chiefs: In part two of their gambling show, Nick Wright ran through NFC (and recapped AFC) win-total picks, division winners and make/miss-the-playoffs bets, backing the Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders, Bears, Buccaneers and Falcons to clear their totals while predicting Commanders, Bucs and Rams division titles. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/252a575e-6524-48d2-86c4-356e2509e8f5 (scored 0) - Gregg Rosenthal on New Orleans Saints: Rosenthal's under picks and a few freebie leans: Colts under 7.5 (possibly the worst team), Commanders under 9.5, Saints under 5.5 (possibly 2-15), Bears under 8.5, plus stated likes on Dolphins under 8.5, Giants over 5.5 and Ravens over 11.5. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3f529d87-3976-4268-b793-c31075d71d04 (scored 0) - Gregg Rosenthal on Detroit Lions: Rosenthal made a series of over/under win-total picks: Lions over 10.5, Colts under 7.5, Vikings over 8.5, Jets over 5.5, Cowboys over 7.5 (and over 8 in a side challenge), Commanders under 9.5, Saints under 5.5, Bears under 8.5. They also predicted the Cowboys win 10 games and make the playoffs, and the Jets go 7-10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7fd60c68-daca-4b01-92cb-4ec7f89c6722 (scored 0) - Nick Wright on Kansas City Chiefs: Wright picked Chiefs over 11.5, Buccaneers over 9.5, Raiders over 6.5 (plus a Raiders playoff berth), Broncos under 9.5, 49ers under 10.5, Cowboys under 8, Jaguars over 7.5, and Bengals under 9.5 with Zac Taylor fired after missing the playoffs. They also had Commanders and Eagles both 11-6 with Washington winning the NFC East. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c48e72df-628e-4f24-804f-5ce5f7a8e0e6 (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. 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