# Erick-Woods Erickson: Erickson expects a bad night for Republicans: they lose the Senate seats in North Carolina and Texas but hold the rest of the contested seats — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, South Carolina and Ohio — and keep Senate control, possibly even flipping Michigan. He believes the House is lost, with the GOP shedding roughly 25 seats. **Claimed:** Nov 3, 2026 **Pundit:** Erick-Woods Erickson — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/erick-woods-erickson **Outlet:** Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/erick-erickson-newsletter-substack **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://ewerickson.substack.com/p/election-day-arrives 13 checkable claims — 10 race winners, 2 control of congress and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. > Still, I think we keep the Senate. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **I expect Republicans to lose around 25 seats.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **Republicans worried they would lose Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas... I expect Republicans to hold on to the rest** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I expect Republicans to hold on to the rest and keep control of the United States Senate** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I have thought the GOP would lose Ohio, but have become convinced they can save it.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **The House, I believe, is lost. I expect Republicans to lose around 25 seats.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: not settled yet - **Many, many people with more knowledge of the situation tell me Kansas is toast for the GOP. I'll believe it when I see it.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I expect Republicans to hold on to the rest and keep control of the United States Senate** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I expect Republicans to hold on to the rest and keep control of the United States Senate** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I expect Republicans to hold on to the rest and keep control of the United States Senate... Still, I think we keep the Senate.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: not settled yet - **This year, I expect the GOP will lose North Carolina and, here at the end based on early voting data, Texas** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I expect Republicans to hold on to the rest and keep control of the United States Senate** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I would not be surprised if they are able to flip the Michigan Senate seat.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I expect the GOP will lose North Carolina and, here at the end based on early voting data, Texas... my optimism to salvage the seat was misguided.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=erick-woods-erickson