# Nathaniel Rakich: Rakich expects Trump to carry Nebraska with roughly 55-60 percent of the statewide vote, and argues that Republican incumbent Deb Fischer remains a heavy favorite over independent Dan Osborn, with his mental model of the Senate race being about a 55-45 Fischer win.

**Claimed:** Oct 21, 2024
**Pundit:** Nathaniel Rakich — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nathaniel-rakich
**Outlet:** FiveThirtyEight Politics (podcast archive) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/fivethirtyeight-politics-podcast-archive
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/traffic.megaphone.fm/ESP6920159088.mp3?updated=1729543050

3 checkable claims — 2 race margins and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 89.1 out of 100, against 76.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I would personally say that Fischer is is still a a pretty heavy favorite in this race.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **I would personally say that Fischer is is still a a pretty heavy favorite in this race.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **if it ends up being fifty five forty five for Fisher, which is kind of my mental model for this race**
  - Kind: Race Margins
  - Verdict: scored 67.2 out of 100, against 32.8 for a naive guess
- **Donald Trump is going to win Nebraska with, you know, 55, 60% of the vote.**
  - Kind: Race Margins
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 97.9 for a naive guess

## More race margins

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 81.1)
- Doug Schoen: Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/386f50c7-6523-4997-8d80-f0d9bae3ac4b (scored 100)
- Spencer Kimball: Kimball said the House looks set to flip to Republicans, and expected heavy ticket-splitting in New Hampshire, with Republican Sununu winning the governorship by nearly 20 points while Democrats hold the state's Senate seat by three or four points. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6c76e0a9-18bf-4523-841e-cd4afeb9f0eb (scored 48.4)
- Ben Shapiro: Ahead of the midterm elections, Shapiro predicted Republican wins in several marquee races: Marco Rubio beating Val Demings in Florida's Senate race, Brian Kemp defeating Stacey Abrams in Georgia, Ron DeSantis beating Charlie Crist by roughly 10 points, and Kari Lake winning the Arizona governorship. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/359a51b6-5d5b-40c4-8355-dcecbe1159c4 (scored 6)
- Steve Deace: Deace forecast a "red tsunami": Republicans gaining roughly 54 House seats, winning 56 Senate seats, and capturing governorships in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado and Pennsylvania. He also said Ron DeSantis would set a Florida record for the largest GOP gubernatorial margin, that Chuck Grassley would not lose in Iowa, and that Kim Reynolds would win big. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/847945d5-9a88-44ec-bb48-03654b2a8763 (scored 36)
- Jason Johnson: Johnson predicted Republicans would take both chambers, ending with about 230 House seats and about 53 Senate seats, and picked Lee Zeldin in New York and a Republican win in the New Hampshire Senate race as his biggest upsets. He also agreed DeSantis would break Florida's GOP gubernatorial margin record. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b93eea4c-b3ad-4d2d-b9cd-f9b6c17d6a86 (scored 36)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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