# Carl Cannon: Cannon argued the national popular vote is structurally tilted toward Democrats because Harris will carry California by roughly four million votes or more and New York by about 1.5 million, while Trump takes Florida and Texas by a few hundred thousand each. **Claimed:** Oct 25, 2024 **Pundit:** Carl Cannon — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/carl-cannon **Outlet:** RealClearPolitics Podcast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/realclearpolitics-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdcn.co/e/afp-295344-injected.calisto.simplecastaudio.com/de28783a-a808-4145-ac73-dfbf948fb0d0/episodes/a906fbd6-39af-49f1-8d93-9303fe77aff5/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=de28783a-a808-4145-ac73-dfbf948fb0d0&awEpisodeId=a906fbd6-39af-49f1-8d93-9303fe77aff5&feed=pzzjlbXr 4 checkable claims — 4 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 4 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Kamala Harris is gonna win her home state of California by 4,000,000 votes or more. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Trump will probably win Florida and Texas by but you know, by a few 100,000 votes** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Trump will probably win Florida and Texas by but you know, by a few 100,000 votes** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Kamala Harris is gonna win her home state of California by 4,000,000 votes or more. Maybe maybe considerably more.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **She's gonna win Donald Trump's home state by 1,500,000 votes, maybe more. ... He was born in New York.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) - Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=carl-cannon