# Ben Shapiro: Shapiro forecast a strong Republican midterm in the key Senate races, calling wins for Ted Budd in North Carolina, Adam Laxalt in Nevada, Herschel Walker in Georgia, J.D. Vance in Ohio, Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, Marco Rubio in Florida and Mehmet Oz over John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, plus Brian Kemp over Stacey Abrams for Georgia governor. He also named Kathy Hochul's defeat in New York as his sleeper pick of the cycle. **Claimed:** Oct 28, 2022 **Pundit:** Ben Shapiro — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ben-shapiro **Outlet:** The Ben Shapiro Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-ben-shapiro-show **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pfx.vpixl.com/2jSe3/claritaspod.com/measure/mgln.ai/e/121/traffic.megaphone.fm/BVDWV7708147591.mp3?updated=1763143275 9 checkable claims — 9 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 9 have settled, averaging 55.6 out of 100, against 88.9 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Herschel Walker looks like he's gonna win that race walking away. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **But in in North Carolina is up big. He's gonna win that race. ... And meanwhile, Budd is just running away with the race.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Laxalt, as I said, Nevada is up. I think he will win that race.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **In Wisconsin, Ron Johnson, who was once expected to lose that race, is gonna win that race.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Marco Rubio is blowing out Val Demings in Florida... the reason that they are not spending money in these races is because those candidates are going to lose.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Instead, Instead, it looks like they're gonna lose to Mehmet Oz.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I've said that my sleeper pick in this particular midterm election is that Kathy Hochul goes down in New York** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Herschel Walker looks like he's gonna win that race walking away.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **In Ohio, JD Vance is going to poke away with that race.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Brian Kemp is running away with his race against Stacey Abrams... he is dragging Herschel Walker along with him to victory.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=ben-shapiro