# Nate Silver: Citing his own Silver Bulletin model, Nate Silver put Harris slightly ahead of Trump in the presidential race, while cautioning the margin is close to a coin flip and that the Electoral College still tilts toward Trump.

**Claimed:** Oct 30, 2024
**Pundit:** Nate Silver — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nate-silver
**Outlet:** Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/risky-business-with-nate-silver-and-maria-konnikova
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdrl.fm/fac938/tracking.swap.fm/track/SxlTEPDY7xDg35RXkASs/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/951120d9-cf6e-4224-93d7-b15c014dcea5/ffb4065f-bd21-4390-90c9-b21801476dd7/audio.mp3?in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> The Silver Bullets and forecast as of this morning has Harris with a fifty three percent chance and Trump at forty seven percent.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **The Silver Bullets and forecast as of this morning has Harris with a fifty three percent chance and Trump at forty seven percent.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100)
- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100)
- Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100)
- Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0)
- Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0)
- Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=nate-silver