# David Pakman: Pakman calls the non-competitive presidential states a week out: Florida for Trump, with New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts going to Harris. He also says Kari Lake is about to lose the Arizona Senate race to Ruben Gallego, and treats Pennsylvania as genuinely uncertain, laying out scenarios in both directions.

**Claimed:** Oct 29, 2024
**Pundit:** David Pakman — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/david-pakman
**Outlet:** The David Pakman Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-david-pakman-show
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://pscrb.fm/rss/p/clrtpod.com/m/mgln.ai/e/35/traffic.megaphone.fm/SHHWD7037786650.mp3

5 checkable claims — 5 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 5 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> So Kari Lake lost in 2022, will almost certainly lose in 2024

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **The election will not depend on New Jersey, which has nearly half a million Puerto Ricans. Kamala Harris is going to win that.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Carrie Lake is about to lose her race for senate in Arizona... In all likelihood, Carrie Lake will be defeated once again... So Kari Lake lost in 2022, will almost certainly lose in 2024**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **And similarly, Trump is not going to win New York. Trump is lying and saying we might win New York and New Jersey, but he is not going to.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Massachusetts has 330,000 Puerto Ricans. Massachusetts is going to go to Harris.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Florida has 1,200,000 Puerto Rican people living within it. But most likely, Florida is gone to Trump.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100)
- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100)
- Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100)
- Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0)
- Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0)
- Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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