# Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.

**Claimed:** Nov 9, 2022
**Pundit:** Tom Bevan — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tom-bevan
**Outlet:** The Megyn Kelly Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-megyn-kelly-show
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/101/arttrk.com/p/24FDE/claritaspod.com/measure/sxm.simplecastaudio.com/853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7/episodes/a255652a-3d98-45eb-860e-879dee6286e2/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7&awEpisodeId=a255652a-3d98-45eb-860e-879dee6286e2&feed=RV1USAfC

5 checkable claims — 2 control of congress, 2 race margins and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 68.4 out of 100, against 42.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> And, it looks like Republicans are still gonna take the house.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **And, it looks like Republicans are still gonna take the house.**
  - Kind: Control of Congress
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **And are are you still predicting GOP takes the senate by, like, one quickly? ... Tom? I think it's gonna be one, maybe two.**
  - Kind: Control of Congress
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **we had JD Vance in our real clear politics average leading that race by eight points. That's about what he's coming in at, what he's gonna win it by.**
  - Kind: Race Margins
  - Verdict: scored 81.1 out of 100, against 38.9 for a naive guess
- **So it looks like Oz is gonna fall short, and we'll see what happens with Blake Masters.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Herschel Walker was, up 1.4 in the average of polls. And, you know, for a while there, he was at 1.4, 1.1. I mean, I think it's gonna be, you know, right around that area.**
  - Kind: Race Margins
  - Verdict: scored 60.9 out of 100, against 71.9 for a naive guess

## More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100)
- David Sacks: Sacks forecast a good night for Republicans, saying they would win the House and also take the Senate, driven by the economy and inflation. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fc7b04fc-0539-4075-b2de-339a5121db43 (scored 0)
- Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 100)
- Simon Rosenberg: Rosenberg, quoted from a weekend post, argued the nonpartisan Senate polling showed no red wave and that Democrats remained favored to win the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e0ff6671-0433-44b5-8962-14c22980fcc0 (scored 100)
- Doug Schoen: Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/386f50c7-6523-4997-8d80-f0d9bae3ac4b (scored 100)
- Glenn Beck: Beck forecast Republicans winning about 53 or 54 Senate seats and clearly taking the House, with GOP wins in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire Senate races. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f9c85b52-0829-4303-9e70-7fd00e9a17fc (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

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