# Judah Fortgang: PFF's divisional-round same-game parlay picks: Tampa Bay beats Cincinnati with Cade Otton exploiting the Bengals' linebackers, Las Vegas beats Miami behind Kirk Cousins attacking a depleted Dolphins secondary, and Houston beats Buffalo with C.J. Stroud throwing effectively and Jaylin Noel benefiting from the slot matchup. **Claimed:** Sep 13, 2026 **Pundit:** Judah Fortgang — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/judah-fortgang **Outlet:** Pro Football Focus — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/pro-football-focus **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://www.pff.com/news/bet-nfl-week-1-same-game-parlays-2026/ 9 checkable claims — 6 player season numbers and 3 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 3 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls. Of the 5 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one. > Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield to lean on TE Cade Otton in a win against the Bengals *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Houston Texans to beat Buffalo Bills** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Houston Texans - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Bengals** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Las Vegas Raiders to beat Miami Dolphins** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Jaylin Noel to record 60 receiving yards** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Jaylin Noel, Houston Texans - Verdict: not settled yet - **Cade Otton to record 1 receiving tds** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: not settled yet - **Cade Otton to record 70 receiving yards** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: not settled yet - **Cade Otton to record 6 receptions** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: not settled yet - **Kirk Cousins to record 260 passing yards** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Kirk Cousins, Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: not settled yet - **C.J. Stroud to record 280 passing yards** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/texans - Tampa Bay Buccaneers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/buccaneers - Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/raiders - Jaylin Noel — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jaylin-noel - Cade Otton — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/cade-otton - Kirk Cousins — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kirk-cousins - C.J. Stroud — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/c-j-stroud ## What others said about the same people - Chris Simms on Houston Texans: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 47.62) - Steven Ruiz on Las Vegas Raiders: Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a30ff469-4972-4c48-855b-ba984e4de9d0 (scored 100) - Nate Tice on Las Vegas Raiders: Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b8378e16-ea5c-4107-a883-28aaf0e71134 (scored 100) - Marcus Ray on Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Marcus predicted a 30-13 Buccaneers win over Cleveland with three touchdowns and three field goals, and picked the Raiders to beat a Jim Harbaugh team to start 2-0. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/aa09b337-f1fa-49b0-bc4b-5e2bbaddb5df (scored 19.05) - Ryan LaVoy on Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LaVoy predicted a 28-10 Buccaneers win over the Browns, said even the Falcons would beat Cleveland, and named Detroit, Baltimore and the Rams as teams he expects in the playoffs. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/227e256e-a31d-413d-a568-7f7250dcd161 (scored 16.67) - Jaron Spor on Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The host predicted a comfortable Buccaneers win over Cleveland, 27-10, picked Jacksonville as an upset winner at Denver, said the Giants could win seven or eight games as a sneaky team, and expected Deshaun Watson and the Browns to part ways soon. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7a7160b2-ca51-4fce-a478-bd9f75323548 (scored 19.05) ## More player season numbers The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Ross Jackson on Tyler Shough: Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4dc05898-73fd-4fcb-92c4-a940d7e395ba (scored 3.63) - Chris Broussard on Lamar Jackson: Broussard expects Lamar Jackson to play well but not vintage — two touchdown passes and no picks — while Derrick Henry carries the load with over 100 rushing yards. He also takes the Browns to upset the Bengals and believes Myles Garrett gets at least two sacks to break the single-season record. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5a026afc-40fe-4b1f-b209-3ce53ae205d7 (scored 0) - Nick Wright on Myles Garrett: Wright picks the Steelers to beat the Ravens outright in Pittsburgh, takes Seattle over San Francisco, and thinks the Browns lose to Cincinnati even as Myles Garrett gets the sack record. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9a8b5cea-9f2f-46f0-9939-72c2a60e4c26 (scored 100) - Nick Wright on Myles Garrett: Nick Wright says Myles Garrett is playing at an all-time level and might reach 25 sacks this season, and among his weekly picks he expects the Bears to beat the Steelers in an ugly low-margin home win and Seattle to win comfortably at Tennessee. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/029b0090-8d3f-47de-9fb9-7f0a02320f3a (scored 84) - Shannon Sharpe on T.J. Watt: On a Bengals-Steelers matchup, Sharpe took the over on several player props: Ja'Marr Chase over 74.5 receiving yards, Joe Flacco over 36.5 pass attempts, and T.J. Watt over 3.5 tackles+assists, adding that Watt will get two sacks. He also predicted Rico Dowdle would make the Pro Bowl this season. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1fbc5b8e-7449-41f4-a5a2-7029cc4ef65e (scored 0) - Rich Eisen on Micah Parsons: Eisen made a series of picks: Micah Parsons will out-sack any two Cowboys combined (after initially leaning the other way), the NFC North is more likely to produce a Super Bowl team than the NFC East, Eagles wins will outnumber Cowboys losses, Bo Nix/Courtland Sutton will out-touchdown Cam Ward/Calvin Ridley, and Marvin Harrison Jr./James Conner will beat Kamara/Olave in yards and TDs. He also picked the AFC West order and said Deion Sanders is more likely than Bill Belichick to have a winning record. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f94f8499-af74-4a8d-a688-fd08cd52bb3c (scored 56.25) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=judah-fortgang