# Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton predicted Republicans keep the Senate but lose the House, and ran through the key Senate races: GOP wins in Texas, Maine and New Hampshire, while Democrats take Michigan, North Carolina and Ohio. **Claimed:** Oct 6, 2026 **Pundit:** Buck Sexton — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/buck-sexton **Outlet:** The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-clay-travis-and-buck-sexton-show **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/arttrk.com/p/D5CA5/mgln.ai/e/28/pdst.fm/e/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/57c236de-aec0-46c1-b141-ae3c00026d77/e2f1055e-ea8a-41c3-b60d-b4db012aa4dd/audio.mp3?in_playlist=1776c4cc-50a1-410f-a2de-ae3c00026dfa 9 checkable claims — 6 race winners and 3 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. > I think we win the Senate we lose the house *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **I think we win in Maine. ... I probably have too much faith in Susan Collins, but I've just always seen all the polls completely underestimate her strength to pull out a victory.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think we win in New Hampshire.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think we lose in North Carolina.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think we win in Texas. ... But I'm very confident still in Texas.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **so i think i think we win the senate we lose the house** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: not settled yet - **I do think we're going to win the Senate. I just want to be clear, I'm not a doomer about this at all.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think we lose in Ohio.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think we lose in Michigan. ... I just think that Michigan race is going to be very tough for us.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **which is what Democrats will do when they get the majority in the House, which everyone pretty much expects will happen** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=buck-sexton