# Bill Scher: Scher called the race a coin flip but gave Harris the edge on ground game, and named as most likely a 270-268 Harris electoral college win built on the Blue Wall plus Nebraska's second district, with no Sun Belt states, a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. He also expected Tester to lose Montana and Allred and Mucarsel-Powell to fall short in Texas and Florida. **Claimed:** Oct 25, 2024 **Pundit:** Bill Scher — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bill-scher **Outlet:** Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/politics-politics-politics-justin-robert-young **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/150695180/2593551355249779a2c5c4fc2d1a7ff3.mp3 13 checkable claims — 10 race winners, 2 chamber control and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 13 have settled, averaging 50.5 out of 100, against 35.2 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I would think the most likely is a two seventy, two sixty eight Harris winning electoral college. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **in the senate, you know, Tester does not look good in Montana. I hate to say it, but it seems like just a lot of Republicans that move into that state just change the complexion of the state.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **while Allred and, Riskell Powell are knocking on the door in Florida and Texas, it seems hard to believe they could actually overcome, without there being a really broader blue wave** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Democrats win the house. Republicans win the senate.** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Democrats win the house. Republicans win the senate.** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **will come up short, you know, in the Sun Belt where, you know, Joe Biden just barely won it, you know, in Arizona and Georgia last time** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **will come up short, you know, in the Sun Belt where, you know, Joe Biden just barely won it, you know, in Arizona and Georgia last time** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **That's that's Blue Wall plus Nebraska two** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **while Allred and, Riskell Powell are knocking on the door in Florida and Texas, it seems hard to believe they could actually overcome** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I'm inclined to believe Harris can gut out, the Rust Belt with ground game** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **That's that's Blue Wall plus Nebraska two, not winning anything in the Sun Belt.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **That's that's Blue Wall plus Nebraska two, not winning anything in the Sun Belt.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I would think the most likely is a two seventy, two sixty eight Harris winning electoral college. Narrow, narrow, narrow.** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 56 out of 100, against 57 for a naive guess - **I still put the edge in the Harris camp Yeah. Because I do feel that there is a ground game mismatch here.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=bill-scher