# Ben Shapiro: On election day 2024 Shapiro gave Trump a slight edge nationally and laid out a map in which Trump sweeps the Sun Belt battlegrounds (North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada) and all three Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), while Virginia stays blue. He also called Senate races for Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, Bernie Moreno over Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Jim Justice in West Virginia. **Claimed:** Nov 5, 2024 **Pundit:** Ben Shapiro — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ben-shapiro **Outlet:** The Ben Shapiro Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-ben-shapiro-show **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pfx.vpixl.com/2jSe3/claritaspod.com/measure/mgln.ai/e/121/traffic.megaphone.fm/BVDWV2904162695.mp3?updated=1763185155 13 checkable claims — 13 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 13 have settled, averaging 92.3 out of 100, against 23.1 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I'm gonna I'm gonna say slight advantage Trump. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **I think Trump's gonna win all of them. ... Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, those states look more like Ohio than they do like Virginia, meaning I believe that they are trending red.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I think Trump's gonna win all of them. ... And as for Wisconsin, Wisconsin is a notoriously difficult state to poll.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **As far as West Virginia, that, of course, the senate seat that that is going to go to the Republicans, that that would be Jim Justice, who's gonna win that senate seat pretty easily.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I'm gonna I'm gonna say slight advantage Trump. And if I had to put out my map right now... ... here is best case scenario for Donald Trump, and I think it it actually is gonna materialize tonight.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **There's certain states that I didn't give to Trump in this map. I didn't give Trump Virginia. Virginia is trending blue. It is not trending red.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I think Eric Hovde, who's the senatorial candidate in Wisconsin who is running extremely strong in Wisconsin right now, I think Hovde wins that race.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I think Moreno takes that seat. I think Sherrod Brown goes home.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **By the way, I think that Dave McCormack in Pennsylvania wins that race based on the early voting numbers.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Trump takes all the Sun Belt states. He takes North Carolina. He takes Georgia. I think both those are very likely.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Georgia, of course, a big swing state. I think that one is in Trump's camp. I think he's going to win that.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Arizona is very likely. ... So Arizona, you know, looks as though that is going to be, a walkaway for for Trump.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I think that he sneaks Nevada in there. ... I'd be a little surprised if he doesn't win Nevada.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **And then you get to the Rust Belt states. I think Trump... You ready for this? I think Trump's gonna win all of them. ... Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, those states look more like Ohio than they do like Virginia** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=ben-shapiro