# Josh Holmes: Holmes, previewing the midterms a week out, called Nevada a Republican pickup for Adam Laxalt, said he felt very good about Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania after the Fetterman debate, and predicted Brian Kemp would beat Stacey Abrams by a wide margin in Georgia's governor's race. **Claimed:** Nov 2, 2022 **Pundit:** Josh Holmes — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/josh-holmes **Outlet:** The Megyn Kelly Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-megyn-kelly-show **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/101/arttrk.com/p/24FDE/claritaspod.com/measure/sxm.simplecastaudio.com/853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7/episodes/07b7e982-acb7-418a-8498-c0ba3b43abf8/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7&awEpisodeId=07b7e982-acb7-418a-8498-c0ba3b43abf8&feed=RV1USAfC 3 checkable claims — 3 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I expect this to be a very close race, but at this point, everything points to an Adam Laczal victory. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **So I think that is is definitely gonna be a Republican pickup. ... I expect this to be a very close race, but at this point, everything points to an Adam Laczal victory.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **So I I like Oz's chances in Pennsylvania a lot. ... that final two, three, 4%, that is disproportionately going to break Oz's way, which is why I feel really good about that Pennsylvania senate race.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **governor Kemp is also on that ballot and is blowing the doors off of Stacey Abrams ... this is not a six point race. He's... Kemp's gonna win this thing by a margin** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=josh-holmes