# Michael O'Keefe: Stifel's chief investment strategist said that, following historical midterm patterns, they expect the House to flip away from the president's party to the Democrats, while calling the Senate essentially a toss-up and anticipating divided government.

**Claimed:** Oct 23, 2026
**Pundit:** Michael O'Keefe — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/michael-o-keefe
**Outlet:** The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-clay-travis-and-buck-sexton-show
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/arttrk.com/p/D5CA5/mgln.ai/e/28/pdst.fm/e/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/57c236de-aec0-46c1-b141-ae3c00026d77/6fb7996d-f79d-4153-819b-b4ec0119fcd1/audio.mp3?in_playlist=1776c4cc-50a1-410f-a2de-ae3c00026dfa

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> by historic standards, we expect the House to flip, right? Typically goes against the president in the midterms.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- “Well, number one, by historic standards, we expect the House to flip, right? Typically goes against the president in the midterms.”
  - Kind: Control of Congress
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess

## More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 100)
- Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 100)
- Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 0)
- Isaac Saul: Saul says Democrats have the House sewn up heading into election night, and that Democrats have good odds of winning the Senate races in Maine and Michigan. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f27d4f5b-e1cc-44b3-8f0b-b9fbd7c422cb (scored 100)
- Isaac Saul: Saul asserts that Democrats have the House sewn up, and says Democrats appear to be running away with the statewide races in Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire while having good odds in Maine and Michigan. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3424d5ea-fb93-4738-8b03-bd5dd4f4d5b7 (scored 100)
- Erick-Woods Erickson: Erickson expects a bad night for Republicans: they lose the Senate seats in North Carolina and Texas but hold the rest of the contested seats — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, South Carolina and Ohio — and keep Senate control, possibly even flipping Michigan. They believe the House is lost, with the GOP shedding roughly 25 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/351bb670-9f0b-453f-b74c-f93b044bd257 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=michael-o-keefe