# Ollie Connolly: Connelly assesses the 2026 draft class: he sees Jeremiah Love as a top-ten most productive player at running back with an Ezekiel Elliott-to-Bijan/McCaffrey range, projects Fernando Mendoza as a top-8-to-12 starting QB in the league, pegs Ty Simpson as a top-of-the-second-round pick he'd only be comfortable taking in the third, and slots various tight ends and late running backs into specific rounds. **Claimed:** Apr 17, 2026 **Pundit:** Ollie Connolly — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ollie-connolly **Outlet:** Around the NFL (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/around-the-nfl-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/nfl-daily/ranking-the-2026-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-running-backs-and-tight-ends 9 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks, 2 positional finishes and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 4 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 27.8 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one. > I think you're getting someone where the benchmark is going to be top ten most productive play at his position. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Kyle Louis to be picked “second or third round pick” (picks 33–100)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kyle Louis - Verdict: scored 19.28 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Kaelon Black to be picked “potential sixth round pick types” (picks 182–216)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kaelon Black - Verdict: scored 1.86 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Demond Claiborne to be picked “fourth or fifth round” (picks 101–181)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Demond Claiborne - Verdict: scored 47.88 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Ty Simpson to be picked “top of the second round” (picks 33–64)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Ty Simpson - Verdict: scored 42.04 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Fernando Mendoza to finish top 12 at his position, by passing yards** - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: too vague to check - **Sonny Styles to be the second or third best player of role in the class at his position off the board** - Kind: Position Order Calls · About: Sonny Styles - Verdict: too vague to check - **Jeremiyah Love to finish top 10 at his position, by rushing yards** - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Jeremiyah Love - Verdict: too vague to check - **Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “maybe it's mole down in the teens the twenties”** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kenyon Sadiq - Verdict: not settled yet - **Will Kacmarek to be picked “an early day three”** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Will Kacmarek - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Kyle Louis — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kyle-louis - Kaelon Black — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kaelon-black - Demond Claiborne — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/demond-claiborne - Ty Simpson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/ty-simpson - Fernando Mendoza — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/fernando-mendoza - Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/raiders - Sonny Styles — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/sonny-styles - Jeremiyah Love — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jeremiyah-love - Kenyon Sadiq — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kenyon-sadiq - Will Kacmarek — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/will-kacmarek ## What others said about the same people - Steven Ruiz on Las Vegas Raiders: Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a30ff469-4972-4c48-855b-ba984e4de9d0 (scored 100) - Nate Tice on Las Vegas Raiders: Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b8378e16-ea5c-4107-a883-28aaf0e71134 (scored 100) - Chris Broussard on Las Vegas Raiders: Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dee7585c-6da6-4afc-9954-ff32cf8de4e3 (scored 100) - David Harrison on Sonny Styles: Harrison gives his initial 53-man roster projection for the Washington Commanders: three quarterbacks including Ethan Kalyak Manus, three running backs, four tight ends, six receivers (leaving off De'Ami Brown and Jaden Bradley), nine offensive linemen with Matt Goldman at center, and a defense of six linebackers but only four cornerbacks. He also projects Tunstall and Newton going to IR on Monday with De'Ami Brown and Dietrich Wise re-signed, plus a corner-heavy practice squad. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1d5b2565-5531-47ac-bff8-ccb9b23a980a (scored 100) - David Harrison on Sonny Styles: Harrison projects the Washington Commanders' initial 53-man roster if it had to be set today, naming 26 offensive players, three specialists and 24 defenders, and also assigns depth-chart slots at quarterback, running back, the offensive line, the interior defensive line, and the return/specialist jobs. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2e2254ee-daf7-4f82-81d4-2bc73e1b7291 (scored 100) - Alain Poupart on Will Kacmarek: Previewing the Dolphins' preseason finale and roster cutdown, Poupart states Malik Willis is locked in as the starting quarterback, Mark Gronowski is effectively gone, and identifies Greg Dulcich and Will Kacmarek as the only certainties at tight end while treating several receivers as settled roster locks. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ea9d4107-0a88-42a5-8300-186c4a38bef3 (scored 100) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Ryan Wilson on J.J. McCarthy: Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/44cc5859-8b2b-4fbf-b5c0-62c635f2e357 (scored 36.92) - Nick Shook on Max Iheanachor: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 87.81) - Gregg Rosenthal on K.C. Concepcion: Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8fae9a3a-7fd8-454c-99cc-0a8400c35d7d (scored 67.71) - Daniel Jeremiah on Keyron Crawford: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 80.52) - Daniel Jeremiah on Carnell Tate: Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/48a1d189-dc0f-4250-aa3b-0e27119c733a (scored 91.7) - Bucky Brooks on Carnell Tate: In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/677f566f-9e38-4dd7-b312-0baad54b440e (scored 80.52) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=ollie-connolly