# Bob Vander Plaats: He rejected the Selzer Iowa poll and predicted Trump would carry Iowa by high single digits, win the presidency convincingly, and approach 300 electoral votes.

**Claimed:** Nov 4, 2024
**Pundit:** Bob Vander Plaats — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bob-vander-plaats
**Outlet:** Steve Deace Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/steve-deace-show
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pfx.vpixl.com/4V6da/arttrk.com/p/BLZM1/verifi.podscribe.com/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/285/pscrb.fm/rss/p/prfx.byspotify.com/e/claritaspod.com/measure/traffic.megaphone.fm/BMDC8847691421.mp3?updated=1730751503

3 checkable claims — 2 race margins and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 74 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I believe he's a knock on the door of 300 electoral college votes. I think this is gonna be a convincing win, tomorrow night.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **I think this is gonna be a convincing win, tomorrow night. ... he looks like he's gonna win the popular vote, and he's gonna win probably most of those key states.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **where things were at in Iowa the way I thought that, you know, Trump should win between somewhere between five and eight or eight and ten points, the state of Iowa**
  - Kind: Race Margins
  - Verdict: scored 47.9 out of 100, against 49.9 for a naive guess
- **I still believe at the end of the day, Trump is gonna knock on the door of winning the popular vote, which will be the first Republican who's done that in quite a while, and I believe he's a knock on the door of 300 electoral college votes.**
  - Kind: Race Margins
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## More race margins

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 87.9)
- Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100)
- Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 85)
- David Frum: Frum predicted Trump would take about 47 percent of the national vote and again be rejected by a majority, and that Arizona would deliver a bad surprise for Democrats with voters backing Trump while rejecting Kari Lake's Senate bid. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d801b47f-11b1-4078-a15e-6a8670c71670 (scored 72)
- Tim Miller: Miller predicted Kamala Harris would hold the blue wall states and Nevada and win a narrow Electoral College victory with 276 electoral votes, while also saying Florida and Texas would stay out of reach for Democrats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5506a84f-61ca-4667-8670-a8fb3229ae2d (scored 50)
- Robby Soave: Soave forecast the narrowest possible Electoral College outcome, 270-268 for Kamala Harris, with Harris holding the three blue wall states including Pennsylvania while Trump flips Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/51b2250d-7167-4f78-987c-b410831699d8 (scored 56)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=bob-vander-plaats