# Erick-Woods Erickson: Erickson forecast a strong Republican night: the GOP wins the Senate races in Nevada and Georgia and holds Wisconsin, taking Senate control, and could gain about 35 House seats. He also expected Blake Masters to win in Arizona, Lee Zeldin to win the New York governorship, and Raphael Warnock to lose outright without a runoff, while calling Pennsylvania's Senate race too close to call. **Claimed:** Nov 7, 2022 **Pundit:** Erick-Woods Erickson — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/erick-woods-erickson **Outlet:** Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/erick-erickson-newsletter-substack **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://ewerickson.substack.com/p/my-final-assessment 7 checkable claims — 5 race winners, 1 control of congres and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 7 have settled, averaging 14.3 out of 100, against 93.6 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I think the GOP wins Nevada and Georgia while holding Wisconsin and therefore takes the Senate. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **and therefore takes the Senate** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I think the GOP wins Nevada and Georgia while holding Wisconsin and therefore takes the Senate.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I think the GOP wins Nevada and Georgia while holding Wisconsin and therefore takes the Senate. ... Her failures will cost Raphael Warnock his seat on Tuesday, sparing Georgia a runoff.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **In Arizona, I'm inclined to think Blake Masters wins.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I think the GOP could get thirty-five seats in the U.S. House.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess - **I think Lee Zeldin wins in New York, and the issue is crime.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I think the GOP wins Nevada and Georgia while holding Wisconsin and therefore takes the Senate.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=erick-woods-erickson