# Mike Florio: Florio gives score predictions for every Week 1 game of the 2026 NFL season, including an opening-night upset by the Patriots in Seattle and narrow home wins for the Giants and Chiefs. **Claimed:** Sep 9, 2026 **Pundit:** Mike Florio — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mike-florio **Outlet:** NBC Sports — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/nbc-sports **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/pfts-week-1-2026-nfl-picks 16 checkable claims — 16 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 16 have settled, averaging 61.5 out of 100, against 52.7 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I'd rather be wrong by being bold than to take the chalk and regret missing the potential signs for an opening-night upset. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Kansas City Chiefs 20 — Broncos 17** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Kansas City Chiefs - Verdict: scored 57.14 out of 100, against 51.93 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 14, 2026): Chiefs by 2.5, total 42.5 · this 20–17 calls a bigger Chiefs win (by 3) and fewer points (37). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Minnesota Vikings 30 — Packers 20** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Minnesota Vikings - Verdict: scored 83.33 out of 100, against 58.25 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Vikings by 1.5, total 46.5 · this 30–20 calls a bigger Vikings win (by 10) and more points (50). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Detroit Lions 34 — Saints 24** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Detroit Lions - Verdict: scored 78.57 out of 100, against 96.35 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Lions by 7, total 49.5 · this 34–24 calls a bigger Lions win (by 10) and more points (58). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Houston Texans 20 — Bills 16** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Houston Texans - Verdict: scored 47.62 out of 100, against 36.83 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Bills by 1.5, total 44.5 · this 20–16 calls a Texans win (by 4; the line gave the Texans 50%) and fewer points (36). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Buccaneers 24** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Cincinnati Bengals - Verdict: scored 92.86 out of 100, against 84.44 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Bengals by 3.5, total 50.5 · this 27–24 calls a closer game (Bengals by 3) and more points (51). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Chicago Bears 24 — Panthers 17** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Chicago Bears - Verdict: scored 64.29 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Bears by 3, total 47.5 · this 24–17 calls a bigger Bears win (by 7) and fewer points (41). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **New York Giants 23 — Cowboys 21** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: New York Giants - Verdict: scored 85.71 out of 100, against 79.68 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Cowboys by 3, total 47.5 · this 23–21 calls a Giants win (by 2; the line gave the Giants 40%) and fewer points (44). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Baltimore Ravens 24 — Colts 20** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Baltimore Ravens - Verdict: scored 66.67 out of 100, against 5.87 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Ravens by 3, total 48.5 · this 24–20 calls a bigger Ravens win (by 4) and fewer points (44). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Philadelphia Eagles 27 — Commanders 14** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Philadelphia Eagles - Verdict: scored 73.81 out of 100, against 93.97 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Eagles by 6, total 43.5 · this 27–14 calls a bigger Eagles win (by 13) and fewer points (41). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Pittsburgh Steelers 21 — Falcons 10** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Pittsburgh Steelers - Verdict: scored 90.48 out of 100, against 82.06 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Steelers by 6.5, total 40.5 · this 21–10 calls a bigger Steelers win (by 11) and fewer points (31). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Los Angeles Chargers 27 — Cardinals 10** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Los Angeles Chargers - Verdict: scored 38.1 out of 100, against 20.16 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Chargers by 8.5, total 47.5 · this 27–10 calls a bigger Chargers win (by 17) and fewer points (37). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Miami Dolphins 13 — Raiders 10** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Miami Dolphins - Verdict: scored 23.81 out of 100, against 65.4 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Raiders by 3, total 40.5 · this 13–10 calls a Dolphins win (by 3; the line gave the Dolphins 40%) and fewer points (23). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Tennessee Titans 20 — Jets 17** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Tennessee Titans - Verdict: scored 26.19 out of 100, against 17.78 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Titans by 1.5, total 39.5 · this 20–17 calls a bigger Titans win (by 3) and fewer points (37). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Jacksonville Jaguars 28 — Browns 14** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Jacksonville Jaguars - Verdict: scored 76.19 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Jaguars by 8.5, total 40.5 · this 28–14 calls a bigger Jaguars win (by 14) and more points (42). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Los Angeles Rams 24 — 49ers 13** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Los Angeles Rams - Verdict: scored 28.57 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 10, 2026): Rams by 3.5, total 47.5 · this 24–13 calls a bigger Rams win (by 11) and fewer points (37). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **New England Patriots 24 — Seahawks 21** - Kind: Score Predictions · About: New England Patriots - Verdict: scored 50 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Sep 9, 2026): Seahawks by 3, total 44.5 · this 24–21 calls a Patriots win (by 3; the line gave the Patriots 40%) and more points (45). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. ## Who this take is about - Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chiefs - Minnesota Vikings — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/vikings - Detroit Lions — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/lions - Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/texans - Cincinnati Bengals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bengals - Chicago Bears — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bears - New York Giants — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/giants - Baltimore Ravens — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/ravens - Philadelphia Eagles — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/eagles - Pittsburgh Steelers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/steelers - Los Angeles Chargers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chargers - Miami Dolphins — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/dolphins - Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/titans - Jacksonville Jaguars — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jaguars - Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/rams - New England Patriots — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/patriots ## What others said about the same people - Chris Clark on Nikko Remigio: Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/99521265-d5c0-4db1-b2a0-fe77908ea0b3 (scored 0) - Nate Gosney on Daiyan Henley: After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/60272861-4ad0-4749-b36a-dcdf09b9213f (scored 0) - Sam Monson on New York Giants: Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f4cb7a1e-1380-4f08-b39b-1432b97db846 (scored 0) - Pete Prisco on New York Giants: Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e142b910-0967-4de9-9429-c342bc079205 (scored 35.71) - Jared Dubin on New York Giants: Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/04562aeb-eccf-4266-be8e-32a3aacfd6fc (scored 42.86) - Jared Dubin on New York Giants: Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b6c19276-74df-4775-8a6e-f67c6d94b773 (scored 42.86) ## More score predictions The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jordan Dajani on Washington Commanders: Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/46f7646f-2c64-4827-a522-67975af79fb6 (scored 95.24) - Tyler Sullivan on Washington Commanders: Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1bb32676-c3b3-4b8e-8a03-b58396cf98bf (scored 100) - John Breech on Washington Commanders: Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9fddc8e1-3823-4252-bdd7-f81ef11b1da3 (scored 90.48) - Jordan Dajani on Washington Commanders: Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e2531f3a-2140-40ac-9831-5ff8224e090f (scored 95.24) - John Breech on Washington Commanders: Breech gave straight-up score predictions for every Week 10 NFL game, including the desperate Commanders beating the Giants on Thursday night, the Lions handling the Patriots in Munich, the Texans beating Deshaun Watson and the Browns, and the Bengals surviving the Steelers at home despite returning from Madrid. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6cf76e62-6135-4cd9-9ac8-0c5294b6a759 (scored 90.48) - Pete Prisco on Buffalo Bills: Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/baf85732-a389-4d56-8efe-5ce1e77fb8ae (scored 76.19) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=mike-florio