# Kyle Kondik: Kondik's Crystal Ball ratings put 214 House districts at least leaning Democratic and 201 at least leaning Republican, with his best overall guess around 230 Democratic seats, and the Senate at 49 at least Leans D and 47 at least Leans R. He also made four House rating changes, favoring Democrats in NE-2 and FL-25, while keeping Fitzpatrick favored in PA-1 and downgrading Steil in WI-1 to Leans Republican. **Claimed:** Oct 8, 2026 **Pundit:** Kyle Kondik — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/kyle-kondik **Outlet:** Sabato's Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/sabato-s-crystal-ball-uva-center-for-politics **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/republicans-try-to-avoid-a-crossover 16 checkable claims — 11 race winners and 5 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. > Our best overall guess as of today would probably put the Democrats around 230 seats, give or take. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **We continue to rate PA-1 as Leans Republican, and we still feel OK about that assessment.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **Of districts impacted by redistricting, CA-1, CA-41, and UT-1 are all rated Safe Democratic.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **Our best overall guess as of today would probably put the Democrats around 230 seats, give or take.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **HOUSE : 214 at least Leans D, 201 at least Leans R, 20 Toss-ups.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **Of districts impacted by redistricting, CA-1, CA-41, and UT-1 are all rated Safe Democratic.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **SENATE : 49 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R, 4 Toss-ups.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **we're moving WI-1 from Likely Republican to Leans Republican** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **HOUSE : 214 at least Leans D, 201 at least Leans R, 20 Toss-ups.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **Of districts impacted by redistricting, CA-1, CA-41, and UT-1 are all rated Safe Democratic.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **We are moving the race from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **We are moving this race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **Rep. Kevin Kiley (I, CA-6), a former Republican turned independent following a Democratic gerrymander, is in a Likely Democratic race in a Harris +8.5 Sacramento-area district.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **The open CA-48 in southern California is a Leans Democratic flip.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **We currently favor Democrats in all of the Harris-won seats they currently hold, although Reps. Adam Gray (D, CA-13) and Laura Gillen (D, NY-4) are in only very marginal Harris seats.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **SENATE : 49 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R, 4 Toss-ups.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **We currently favor Democrats in all of the Harris-won seats they currently hold, although Reps. Adam Gray (D, CA-13) and Laura Gillen (D, NY-4) are in only very marginal Harris seats.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=kyle-kondik