# Domenico Montanaro: He said Republicans are favored to take the open West Virginia seat and that Tim Sheehy is favored to beat Jon Tester in Montana, that Texas leans Republican with Cruz likely winning by three to four points, and that Trump will probably carry Montana by double digits.

**Claimed:** Oct 22, 2024
**Pundit:** Domenico Montanaro — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/domenico-montanaro
**Outlet:** The NPR Politics Podcast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-npr-politics-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://prfx.byspotify.com/e/play.podtrac.com/npr-510310/npr.simplecastaudio.com/81c2d960-75d6-4dba-9f07-0bfade0db7ce/episodes/2db96aca-7b87-4c77-828c-e89ae5c4efb5/audio/128/default.mp3?awCollectionId=81c2d960-75d6-4dba-9f07-0bfade0db7ce&awEpisodeId=2db96aca-7b87-4c77-828c-e89ae5c4efb5&d=1010&e=1211596821&p=510310&size=16172975&t=podcast

4 checkable claims — 2 race margins and 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 4 have settled, averaging 88.8 out of 100, against 19.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> The Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy, is favored to win there in Montana.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **almost all of their seats are likely to go their way except for lean Republican category of Texas now because Democrat Colin Allred... But that race has still seemed to be something that's probably a three to four point race in favor of Republicans.**
  - Kind: Race Margins
  - Verdict: scored 55 out of 100, against 15 for a naive guess
- **It's why it's so difficult for Jon Tester, despite his popularity in the state, to outrun, you know, Trump, you know, who's gonna probably win the state by double digits or more.**
  - Kind: Race Margins
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 64.4 for a naive guess
- **The Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy, is favored to win there in Montana.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **They're already favored to win the seat that Joe Manchin retired from, the senator from West Virginia.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess

## More race margins

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 87.9)
- Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100)
- Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 85)
- David Frum: Frum predicted Trump would take about 47 percent of the national vote and again be rejected by a majority, and that Arizona would deliver a bad surprise for Democrats with voters backing Trump while rejecting Kari Lake's Senate bid. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d801b47f-11b1-4078-a15e-6a8670c71670 (scored 72)
- Tim Miller: Miller predicted Kamala Harris would hold the blue wall states and Nevada and win a narrow Electoral College victory with 276 electoral votes, while also saying Florida and Texas would stay out of reach for Democrats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5506a84f-61ca-4667-8670-a8fb3229ae2d (scored 50)
- Robby Soave: Soave forecast the narrowest possible Electoral College outcome, 270-268 for Kamala Harris, with Harris holding the three blue wall states including Pennsylvania while Trump flips Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/51b2250d-7167-4f78-987c-b410831699d8 (scored 56)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=domenico-montanaro