# Jim Geraghty: Garrity forecast a large Republican wave: a GOP House majority of roughly 229-241 seats, with his final call at 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats, and a 51-48 Republican Senate edge with Bolduc, Laxalt and Johnson winning while Georgia goes to a runoff. **Claimed:** Nov 8, 2022 **Pundit:** Jim Geraghty — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jim-geraghty **Outlet:** Tangle (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/tangle-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://sphinx.acast.com/p/open/s/66510864c0852400122bc7be/e/2c594bfe-a07c-4ae6-8463-6fd6948b53d2/media.mp3 9 checkable claims — 4 seat counts, 3 race winners and 2 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 9 have settled, averaging 43.9 out of 100, against 71.7 for a naive guess at the same calls. > So put those down as my final prediction numbers, he said. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **you end up with 235 Republicans and 200 Democrats. So put those down as my final prediction numbers** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 35 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess - **With Bulldog, Laxalt, and Johnson winning, I come out to a 51 to 48 GOP advantage** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **With Bulldog, Laxalt, and Johnson winning, I come out to a 51 to 48 GOP advantage** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **my back of the envelope math envisioned a GOP house majority somewhere between two hundred twenty nine and two hundred forty one, and I'm sticking to that** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **my back of the envelope math envisioned a GOP house majority somewhere between two hundred twenty nine and two hundred forty one, and I'm sticking to that** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 65 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess - **I come out to a 51 to 48 GOP advantage by the end of the week with Walker and Warnock headed to a runoff** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 60 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess - **With Bulldog, Laxalt, and Johnson winning, I come out to a 51 to 48 GOP advantage by the end of the week** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **you end up with 235 Republicans and 200 Democrats. So put those down as my final prediction numbers** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 35 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess - **I come out to a 51 to 48 GOP advantage by the end of the week** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More seat counts The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 45) - Glenn Beck: Beck forecast Republicans winning about 53 or 54 Senate seats and clearly taking the House, with GOP wins in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire Senate races. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f9c85b52-0829-4303-9e70-7fd00e9a17fc (scored 20) - Doug Schoen: Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/386f50c7-6523-4997-8d80-f0d9bae3ac4b (scored 0) - Ben Shapiro: On election-day 2022, Shapiro predicted Republicans would end up with 53 to 54 Senate seats and thus a Senate majority, with Blake Masters winning Arizona and Adam Laxalt taking Nevada, while expressing doubt about New Hampshire. He also said Brian Kemp would crush Stacey Abrams in Georgia's governor's race and that a red wave would carry Republicans in the House. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1c0cbfad-0103-4466-b426-ad65b638d7f0 (scored 20) - Steve Deace: On the eve of the midterms Deace projected a 42-seat Republican gain in the House and dismissed the idea that Republicans could take the House without also taking the Senate. He also expected Kari Lake to win the Arizona governorship and suggested Laxalt would win Nevada's Senate race even if his margin were squeezed. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/65d9dec6-348b-4e7c-921c-f9ddd93ae844 (scored 0) - Rich Baris: Barris called Republicans taking the House a foregone conclusion with a seat gain he put at the low end around 15-20, projected Republicans at about 52 Senate seats, said Abigail Spanberger would lose in Virginia's 7th, and expected Democrats to hold Virginia's 10th. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/eedfc6a0-bb67-4834-9391-e4018f0ac573 (scored 40) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. 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