# Newt Gingrich: One week before the midterms, Gingrich ran through the Senate map, saying Hassan would probably lose in New Hampshire, Oz would likely win Pennsylvania, Budd would hold North Carolina, Vance would win Ohio, Laxalt would beat Cortez Masto in Nevada, and Republicans would not be competitive in Colorado. He also spoke of a coming "new Republican Congress." **Claimed:** Nov 2, 2022 **Pundit:** Newt Gingrich — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/newt-gingrich **Outlet:** Newt's World — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/newt-s-world **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0b197502-72fe-4046-b7b3-ae27016ec147/ec160aa3-b832-485d-9e0a-af410102ee1d/audio.mp3?in_playlist=8b19f8a8-4942-4dd1-b38d-ae27016ec151 7 checkable claims — 6 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 7 have settled, averaging 57.1 out of 100, against 71.4 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I fully expect him to win partially because the Latino vote almost everywhere in the country is drifting away from the Democrats *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **In New Hampshire, where Maggie Hassan... Don Bulldock is now getting very close to matching her, and I think when the full impact of the rise in heating oil prices hits in New Hampshire that she's probably going to lose... it's very likely going to come our way.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **he's not breaking through. In the last couple of polls show Senator Bennett winning handily, and my guesses we will not in the end be competitive in Colorado.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Federman dropped behind Memodaz, and I think now it's very likely that Memodaz is going to win Pennsylvania.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Ted Bud now is up by a substantial margin, and I'm pretty confident that Bud is in fact going to keep that seat on the Republican side.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Adam Laxalt, the former Attorney General of Nevada... he is generally now pulling ahead of her, and I fully expect him to win** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Well, I think with the new Republican Congress they will.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **In Ohio, jd. Vance is ahead of Democrat Tim Ryan... So I'm pretty confident that Advance is going to end up winning.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=newt-gingrich