# Chuck Todd: Reading a new Times/Siena poll showing Democrats up 11 on the generic ballot, Todd forecasts a Democratic wave: Democrats winning both chambers, picking up 25-35 House seats, and taking Senate races in Ohio, Texas, Maine and North Carolina while falling short in Kansas, Mississippi and South Carolina. He also caps Democratic Senate gains at 52 seats, says Cynthia Lummis wins Wyoming's Senate seat, Republicans hold Wyoming's at-large House seat, Maura Healey wins reelection in Massachusetts, and Vivek Ramaswamy loses badly in Ohio. **Claimed:** Oct 22, 2026 **Pundit:** Chuck Todd — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/chuck-todd **Outlet:** The Chuck ToddCast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-chuck-toddcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/claritaspod.com/measure/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/p57137/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/c749d540-b5b7-42b1-a855-b33100f844fa/09783a7c-70cb-4b76-88d2-b4eb00279e4a/audio.mp3?in_playlist=8e017e60-9c2d-418d-97bb-b33100f84504 15 checkable claims — 10 race winners, 3 seat counts and 2 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. > the Democrats are going to win the House and the Senate *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **And I have to say, I'll just be honest, I think it's way too bullish. I think 52 is the ceiling.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **the Democrats are going to win the House and the Senate. It's not just going to be a mirage. If this is the electorate, they're going to win both pure and simple.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: not settled yet - **what it probably means is that Democrats come up short in Kansas, short in Mississippi, Short in South Carolina** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **but at a 11-point swing, that's Ohio, that's Texas, that's Maine, that's North Carolina** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **but at a 11-point swing, that's Ohio, that's Texas, that's Maine, that's North Carolina** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **But at this point, if this is the electorate that we're staring at, the time CNN has done, the Democrats are going to win the House and the Senate.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: not settled yet - **what it probably means is that Democrats come up short in Kansas, short in Mississippi, Short in South Carolina** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **Now, are Democrats going to win the Wyoming at-large seat? No, they're not going to win the...** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **but at a 11-point swing, that's Ohio, that's Texas, that's Maine, that's North Carolina** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **They're going to be at somewhere 235 total House seats to 245 if we're looking at a D plus 11.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **what it probably means is that Democrats come up short in Kansas, short in Mississippi, Short in South Carolina** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **If you're at D plus 11, Democrats are picking up 25 to 35 House seats.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **but at a 11-point swing, that's Ohio, that's Texas, that's Maine, that's North Carolina** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **if you stick with that campaign, you put that on your resume, you're not getting hired by any mainstream Republican if he loses as badly as I think he's going to lose on this** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **But me thinks Maura Healey and her lieutenant governor are going to are going to end up victorious here.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=chuck-todd