# Krystal Ball: She endorsed a roughly 25-seat Republican House gain but split from her co-host on several Senate races, picking Cortez Masto in Nevada, Kelly in Arizona and Hassan in New Hampshire while predicting Oz wins Pennsylvania and Walker ultimately wins Georgia after a runoff. She also expected DeSantis and Maryland's Democratic nominee to win their governor's races by double digits. **Claimed:** Nov 7, 2022 **Pundit:** Krystal Ball — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/krystal-ball **Outlet:** Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/breaking-points-with-krystal-and-saagar **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/e7fd5ae7-7621-4e41-9b85-b0ab0164b634/54016753-cb8b-40ea-9382-b0ac0001eac7/audio.mp3?in_playlist=4c1a5135-4197-47c9-b19b-b0ab0164b667 8 checkable claims — 5 race winners, 2 race margins and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 8 have settled, averaging 65 out of 100, against 56.9 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I'll stand with Ralston just because he has such a good track record. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **I am also going to bet Oz on this one because the polls are extremely close... So yeah, I'm going to say that Oz pulls that one, pulls out the victory.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I'll stand with Ralston just because he has such a good track record... I'll say that Catherine Cortez Master holds on there.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **they send him to Florida like Ron de Santis is gonna win by probably double digit like go Charlie Chris** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **So I would also say Walker by a little bit, but you're going to a runoff... I think probably Walker at this point** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **he go to like Maryland, Yes, to campaign for the Democratic gubernatorial nominee who's like definitely going to win again. By double digits** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I was going to say the same thing for the same reason. There you go. They are paying a lot more attention to those races than I am, so and they're lots smarter on these things. So better to go with the experts on that one** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 20 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess - **So I'm going to say Mark Kelly holds on in Arizona.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **The Democrat the mainstream polls have Hassen by a couple of points. I'm going to say she holds on there as well.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=krystal-ball