# Chuck Todd: Todd previews election night and says Democrats are very likely to take the House and to gain at least three and possibly four or five Senate seats. They also treat Andy Barr as the next senator from Kentucky, expects Ossoff to win comfortably in Georgia, and calls Talarico winning the Texas Senate race while Hinojosa loses the governor's race the most likely Texas outcome. **Claimed:** Oct 29, 2026 **Pundit:** Chuck Todd — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/chuck-todd **Outlet:** The Chuck ToddCast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-chuck-toddcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/claritaspod.com/measure/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/p57137/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/c749d540-b5b7-42b1-a855-b33100f844fa/2c3655f3-432e-4c7f-b302-b4f1017e03a6/audio.mp3?in_playlist=8e017e60-9c2d-418d-97bb-b33100f84504 6 checkable claims — 4 race winners, 1 control of congres and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. 5 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 80 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls. > There's a high probability that Democrats win the House. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “Tallarico winning and Hinojosa losing is the most likely scenario in Texas.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “the fact that Ossoff doesn't look like he's even remotely getting a scare here... I could picture an Ossoff call fairly early in that sort of, you know, 730 to 830 window.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “This is Andy Barr, the Republican nominee for Senate. He's about to become the next senator. to replace Mitch McConnell in Kentucky.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Tallarico winning and Hinojosa losing is the most likely scenario in Texas. It's the probability” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “You know, the probability is a Democrat. You know, there's a high probability that Democrats win the House.” - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “the likelihood that Democrats gain at least three, if not four or five Senate seats is pretty is pretty hot” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=chuck-todd