# Dan Pizzuta: Ahead of the 2024 draft, Pizzuta predicts a team trades up into the top 10 for a wide receiver, an interior defensive lineman (Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan Newton) is the first defender drafted, a surprise team trades up for J.J. McCarthy ahead of the Vikings, and only four quarterbacks (Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy) are selected in the first round. **Claimed:** Apr 24, 2024 **Pundit:** Dan Pizzuta — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/dan-pizzuta **Outlet:** The 33rd Team — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-33rd-team **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-bold-predictions-ahead-of-the-1st-round/ 8 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 8 have settled, averaging 73.1 out of 100, against 49.3 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Only four quarterbacks go in the first round *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **J.J. McCarthy to be picked “surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board” (picks 1–135)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: J.J. McCarthy - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Michael Penix Jr. to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Michael Penix Jr. - Verdict: scored 33.86 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jayden Daniels to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jayden Daniels - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Drake Maye to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Drake Maye - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Caleb Williams to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Williams - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **J.J. McCarthy to be 4th quarterback off the board** - Kind: Position Order Calls · About: J.J. McCarthy - Verdict: scored 70.71 out of 100, against 44.76 for a naive guess - **Bo Nix to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Bo Nix - Verdict: scored 40.26 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jer'Zhan Newton to be picked at number 15** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jer'Zhan Newton - Verdict: scored 40.26 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess ## Who this take is about - J.J. McCarthy — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/j-j-mccarthy - Michael Penix Jr. — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/michael-penix-jr - Jayden Daniels — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jayden-daniels - Drake Maye — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/drake-maye - Caleb Williams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-williams - Bo Nix — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/bo-nix - Jer'Zhan Newton — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jer-zhan-newton ## What others said about the same people - Ryan Wilson on J.J. McCarthy: Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/44cc5859-8b2b-4fbf-b5c0-62c635f2e357 (scored 100) - Adam Carlson on J.J. McCarthy: Carlson names three Vikings he expects could be traded before the end of September: quarterback J.J. McCarthy, wide receiver Jordan Addison and linebacker Ivan Pace. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/65e3f9cf-c441-42a2-baaf-7cd3dbebafad (scored 100) - Greg Auman on J.J. McCarthy: Auman argues no quarterback is likely to replicate Sam Darnold's turnaround this season, but names five candidates. He expects Miami to hold a very high pick in the 2027 draft, and thinks J.J. McCarthy will eventually be traded for a late-round pick or cut by the Vikings. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9b8eb78e-ddfa-4274-ac8f-17b069e6b87f (scored 100) - Bucky Brooks on J.J. McCarthy: Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/10c3797b-f9e0-41ca-a2a3-5d765a242a79 (scored 100) - Bryan DeArdo on J.J. McCarthy: Named several players as candidates to be traded before Sunday's cut deadline, including Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy, Cardinals edge Josh Sweat and Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1efd361e-309f-48ba-ab0a-28d77ff76942 (scored 100) - Bryan DeArdo on J.J. McCarthy: A CBS Sports piece lists veterans it expects could be traded before the 53-man roster deadline, including quarterbacks Anthony Richardson (with Buffalo floated as a landing spot), J.J. McCarthy and Will Howard, plus Jerry Jeudy, Joey Porter Jr., Tyrone Tracy Jr., Kayvon Thibodeaux, Josh Sweat, Kristian Fulton and Marist Liufau. It also says Mason Rudolph's and Drew Allar's roster spots in Pittsburgh are secure. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/bd269550-714b-4a52-b6e1-2ba079b58fef (scored 100) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Lance Zierlein on Jeremiyah Love: Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf600df8-87eb-492b-9d91-f7a2b39104ac (scored 100) - Nick Shook on Max Iheanachor: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 87.81) - Gregg Rosenthal on K.C. Concepcion: Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8fae9a3a-7fd8-454c-99cc-0a8400c35d7d (scored 67.71) - Daniel Jeremiah on Keyron Crawford: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 80.52) - Daniel Jeremiah on Carnell Tate: Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/48a1d189-dc0f-4250-aa3b-0e27119c733a (scored 91.7) - Bucky Brooks on Carnell Tate: In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/677f566f-9e38-4dd7-b312-0baad54b440e (scored 80.52) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=dan-pizzuta