# Dan Pizzuta: Ahead of the 2024 draft, Pizzuta predicts a team trades up into the top 10 for a wide receiver, an interior defensive lineman (Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan Newton) is the first defender drafted, a surprise team trades up for J.J. McCarthy ahead of the Vikings, and only four quarterbacks (Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy) are selected in the first round. **Claimed:** Apr 24, 2024 **Pundit:** Dan Pizzuta — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/dan-pizzuta **Outlet:** The 33rd Team — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-33rd-team **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-bold-predictions-ahead-of-the-1st-round/ 8 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 8 have settled, averaging 73.1 out of 100, against 49.3 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Only four quarterbacks go in the first round *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **J.J. McCarthy to be picked “surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board” (picks 1–135)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: J.J. McCarthy - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Michael Penix Jr. to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Michael Penix Jr. - Verdict: scored 33.86 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jayden Daniels to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jayden Daniels - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Drake Maye to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Drake Maye - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Caleb Williams to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Williams - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **J.J. McCarthy to be 4th quarterback off the board** - Kind: Position Order Calls · About: J.J. McCarthy - Verdict: scored 70.71 out of 100, against 44.76 for a naive guess - **Bo Nix to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Bo Nix - Verdict: scored 40.26 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jer'Zhan Newton to be picked at number 15** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jer'Zhan Newton - Verdict: scored 40.26 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess ## Who this take is about - J.J. McCarthy — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/j-j-mccarthy - Michael Penix Jr. — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/michael-penix-jr - Jayden Daniels — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jayden-daniels - Drake Maye — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/drake-maye - Caleb Williams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-williams - Bo Nix — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/bo-nix - Jer'Zhan Newton — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jer-zhan-newton ## What others said about the same people - Patricia Traina on J.J. McCarthy: Traina expects defensive tackle to be a top need for the Giants in next year's draft, and suggests the Giants could trade J.J. McCarthy next offseason — or keep both them and Jaxson Dart if the return isn't good enough. They also expect Dart to make a full recovery. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b638ed13-01ca-4ea6-9384-ec7130f912c1 (scored 100) - John Middlekauff on Caleb Williams: Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. They are pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying they'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. They also see Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/deaaf3f6-e53e-4080-a0ca-d5f872b54c6a (scored 0) - David Harrison on Jer'Zhan Newton: Harrison gives their initial 53-man roster projection for the Washington Commanders: three quarterbacks including Ethan Kalyak Manus, three running backs, four tight ends, six receivers (leaving off De'Ami Brown and Jaden Bradley), nine offensive linemen with Matt Goldman at center, and a defense of six linebackers but only four cornerbacks. They also project Tunstall and Newton going to IR on Monday with De'Ami Brown and Dietrich Wise re-signed, plus a corner-heavy practice squad. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1d5b2565-5531-47ac-bff8-ccb9b23a980a (scored 100) - David Harrison on Jer'Zhan Newton: Harrison projects the Washington Commanders' initial 53-man roster if it had to be set today, naming 26 offensive players, three specialists and 24 defenders, and also assigns depth-chart slots at quarterback, running back, the offensive line, the interior defensive line, and the return/specialist jobs. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2e2254ee-daf7-4f82-81d4-2bc73e1b7291 (scored 100) - Jacob Herlin on J.J. McCarthy: Herlin published Week 7 fantasy D/ST rankings with projections for 28 team defenses, led by Houston, Minnesota and Cleveland. They also expect Cleveland to post a fourth straight top-10 fantasy defense result, and predicts Jalon Daniels starts another week for Tampa Bay while J.J. McCarthy takes over as the Giants' starter. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf4a2992-3760-464e-b540-6182ebc4457f (scored 100) - Eric Mangini on Drake Maye: Mangini picked the Patriots 23-20 with Drake May as Super Bowl MVP, and earlier named Kayshon Boutte ("Kaeshawn Booty") as their dark horse MVP. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/332dce8c-f71c-4f26-a976-8f4615a9f9bd (scored 0) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Chris Simms on Malachi Corley: Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c0fd4647-2de8-4a5f-bac2-950fed303ee9 (scored 11.46) - Todd McShay on Keelon Russell: While breaking down LSU's offense, McShay called receiver Jackson Harris a top-50 NFL draft prospect, and later said LSU's Sam Levitt and Alabama's Keelan Russell are potential top-10 picks in a future draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/15d40546-2ab9-4ab8-b5bd-ed0ef7f26ae5 (scored 0) - Philip Hughes on Kyle Kennard: Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/605a686a-b5f1-4611-82b4-961abf8de93e (scored 33.86) - Blaine Grisak on Brian Thomas Jr.: Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/627bcf5d-9f1d-4a34-a1b7-53b8f0aebc40 (scored 84.09) - Charlie Campbell on Xavier Williams: Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2dd4bf46-e5eb-4dff-8500-95d9fdbd2986 (scored 0) - Walt on Fernando Mendoza: In a running series of coach/GM hiring and firing grades, Walt projects Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 overall pick of the Raiders in the 2026 draft and has LSU's Garrett Nussmeier going No. 2 overall in their 2026 mock draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/29bb2d31-fbe3-40db-b378-be5ba5d990b0 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=dan-pizzuta