# Lakshya Jain: Split Ticket's final 2024 forecast calls the presidency a tossup with Harris the narrowest favorite at 53% and exactly 270 electoral votes, carried by Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; it gives Republicans a 73% chance of taking the Senate at 52-48 while Democrats have a 53% chance of a 219-216 House majority, and it rates dozens of individual Senate, House and governor races. **Claimed:** Nov 4, 2024 **Pundit:** Lakshya Jain — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lakshya-jain **Outlet:** Split Ticket — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://split-ticket.org/2024/11/04/our-final-forecast/ 43 checkable claims — 35 race winners, 4 seat counts, 2 chamber control and 2 race margins — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 43 have settled, averaging 75.4 out of 100, against 45.2 for a naive guess at the same calls. > We give her a 53% chance of winning , and project her to win 270 electoral votes *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are the most likely to carry her to victory** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are the most likely to carry her to victory** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **project her to win 270 electoral votes** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 56 out of 100, against 57 for a naive guess - **our model views this race as a tossup, with Kamala Harris as a nominal favorite (making her our pick for the presidency). We give her a 53% chance of winning** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **given that we think Trump wins Ohio by 8 again** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 67.9 out of 100, against 68.2 for a naive guess - **Our final forecast gives Republicans a 73% chance to take the Senate** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **substantial, but not overwhelming, leads in Montana, Texas, Florida, and Nebraska, all of which are rated Leans Republican** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **with a 52 Republican, 48 Democratic Senate if we eliminate toss ups** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 80 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess - **with a 52 Republican, 48 Democratic Senate if we eliminate toss ups** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 80 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess - **Republicans will flip West Virginia** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **substantial, but not overwhelming, leads in Montana, Texas, Florida, and Nebraska, all of which are rated Leans Republican** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **substantial, but not overwhelming, leads in Montana, Texas, Florida, and Nebraska, all of which are rated Leans Republican** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **our model sees Fischer as the favorite ... Montana, Texas, Florida, and Nebraska, all of which are rated Leans Republican** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Our model has Moreno as the slightest of favorites, with a 56% chance to win** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Our model sees this race as Safe Democratic.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Our final forecast gives Democrats a 53% chance of retaking the House** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Democrats end up with a razor-thin 219–216 majority** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 80 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess - **Democrats end up with a razor-thin 219–216 majority** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 80 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess - **In North Carolina, mid-decade redistricting has all but netted the GOP three seats (NC-06, NC-13, NC-14)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Democrats are strongly favored to pick up AL-02 but even more so LA-06** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **The seat is currently rated Likely Democratic , with Democrat Laura Gillen expected to notch a comfortable victory on election night.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Republicans Marc Molinaro (NY-19) and Brandon Williams (NY-22) are also underdogs.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Only one Democratic incumbent is at a slight disadvantage (despite a titanic fundraising edge): Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03).** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **The two incumbent Republicans who are favored to lose in tossup races ... are Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05) and David Valadao (CA-22).** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Republicans Marc Molinaro (NY-19) and Brandon Williams (NY-22) are also underdogs. ... In NY-22 , where our model gives Democrats better chances at winning** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **In North Carolina, mid-decade redistricting has all but netted the GOP three seats (NC-06, NC-13, NC-14)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **In North Carolina, mid-decade redistricting has all but netted the GOP three seats (NC-06, NC-13, NC-14)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **We expect Democrat Tony Vargas to be carried over the line.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **In California, Democrats are favored to unseat John Duarte (CA-13) and Mike Garcia (CA-27)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **In California, Democrats are favored to unseat John Duarte (CA-13) and Mike Garcia (CA-27)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **The two incumbent Republicans who are favored to lose in tossup races ... are Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05) and David Valadao (CA-22).** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Republican Tom Barrett is favored to flip MI-07** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **where Republican John James is favored to win a rematch against Democrat Carl Marlinga** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **North Carolina, is also home to a Safe Democratic gubernatorial election** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **if we had to pick, we would go with Tilt Republican here** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **a note on Indiana, which remains Likely Republican in our ratings ... partisanship should carry Braun over the top** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are the most likely to carry her to victory** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Democrats are strongly favored to pick up AL-02 but even more so LA-06** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=lakshya-jain