# Armin Thomas: In Split Ticket's final 2022 gubernatorial ratings, he forecast Republican wins in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin among the tossups, Democratic wins in Kansas and Oregon, and safe or likely holds elsewhere, including comfortable Democratic victories in Connecticut, Pennsylvania and New York and Republican holds in Alaska, Georgia, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Texas. **Claimed:** Nov 6, 2022 **Pundit:** Armin Thomas — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/armin-thomas **Outlet:** Split Ticket — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://split-ticket.org/2022/11/06/our-final-governors-ratings/ 19 checkable claims — 17 race winners and 2 race margins — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 19 have settled, averaging 89.5 out of 100, against 80.3 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Split Ticket's first tossup race moves off the board, with Lake favored as the winner, in a victory for MAGA Republicans. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **she seems a sure bet for a victory nonetheless. Final rating: Safe Republican** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Final rating: Safe Democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **The blue trends in the Twin Cities should keep Minnesota tantalizingly out of reach for the GOP... Final rating: Likely Democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Final rating: Likely Republican** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Split Ticket's first tossup race moves off the board, with Lake favored as the winner... Final rating: Leans Republican** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Lamont is likely to become the first Democrat to win a Connecticut gubernatorial election by more than 5 points since 1986.** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Kelly is currently the favorite because of the aforementioned reasons. Final rating: Leans Democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Split Ticket is tipping the Silver State to the GOP. Final rating: Leans Republican** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **the data and fundamentals favor Kotek... Final rating: Leans Democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **for practical purposes, this race is secure for Shapiro in all but name. Final rating: Likely Democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Hochul isn't expected to win by Biden's 24 points, but she should still win comfortably... Final rating: Likely Democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **It would be somewhat surprising if she actually won... Final rating: Likely Republican** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **unless there is a truly massive polling error, Whitmer should win re-election. Final rating: Likely Democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **This race moves off the board. Final rating: Safe Republican** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **the political headwinds seem set to sink Evers' candidacy, in a victory for election deniers and MAGA Republicans in the state of Wisconsin. Final rating: Leans Republican** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **this race is on the board, but Dunleavy should win comfortably. Final rating: Likely Republican** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **A high-single-digit Kemp win seems like the median outcome in Georgia, with thousands of Warnock voters crossing over.** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess - **Mills should win, barring something truly exceptional here... Final rating: Likely Democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Michelle Lujan Grisham should win barring a spectacular polling miss... Final rating: Likely Democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=armin-thomas