# Isaac Saul: Saul predicts Republicans hold the Senate while Democrats take the House, with Democratic wins in Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed), Maine (Troy Jackson), North Carolina and Georgia, and no Democratic win in Kansas. **Claimed:** Oct 8, 2026 **Pundit:** Isaac Saul — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/isaac-saul **Outlet:** Tangle (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/tangle-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://sphinx.acast.com/p/open/s/66510864c0852400122bc7be/e/6ac794568f90a39dfcab4a52/media.mp3 7 checkable claims — 5 race winners and 2 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. > I think they are not gonna control the senate, so they won't get the majority, which is going to make the house of representatives the battleground where democrats control things *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **North Carolina seems like they have locked up.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **Georgia, that seems like they have locked up.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **which is going to make the house of representatives the battleground where democrats control things and grind things to a halt** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think that Democrats are going to win in Michigan. I think Abdul Al Said's gonna win.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think they're gonna win in Maine with Troy Jackson despite the fact that Graham Plattner got forced off the ballot.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think Republicans are gonna hold the senate.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: not settled yet - **It feels really Kansas, no way in my opinion.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=isaac-saul