# Justin Penik: Pennock ranks the eight remaining playoff quarterbacks by conference (Mahomes over Allen over Lamar in the AFC; Stafford, Goff, Daniels, Hurts in the NFC), names Lamar Jackson as MVP, and picks the Chiefs, Lions and Bills to win their divisional games — plus the Lions to beat the Eagles if they meet. **Claimed:** Jan 15, 2025 **Pundit:** Justin Penik — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/justin-penik **Outlet:** The Dan Patrick Show (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-dan-patrick-show-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/wake-n-jake/ranking-the-playoff-qbs-with-justin-penik 7 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks, 2 top player lists and 1 award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 7 have settled, averaging 37.6 out of 100, against 46 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I'm rooting for the Ravens, but I think I'm picking the Bills. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Detroit Lions to beat Eagles** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Detroit Lions - Verdict: scored 33.33 out of 100, against 21.88 for a naive guess - **Kansas City Chiefs to beat Texans** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Kansas City Chiefs - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Jan 18, 2025): Chiefs by 9.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 4 in 5 (81%). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Buffalo Bills to beat Ravens** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Buffalo Bills - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Jan 19, 2025): Ravens by 1.5 · a toss-up, Ravens 52%, Bills 48%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - “automatically we're putting Mahomes, Allen and Lamar ahead of anybody in the NFC... I have Alan and Lamar, but it's very close, and I hate that. So you have you have that flipped.” - Kind: Top Player Lists - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - “So you just went through my one through four. Yeah, Stafford, goff Daniels Hurts.” - Kind: Top Player Lists - Verdict: scored 30 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Lamar Jackson to win MVP** - Kind: Award Picks · About: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Detroit Lions to beat Commanders** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Detroit Lions - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Jan 18, 2025): Lions by 8.5 · favorite pick, Lions about 4 in 5 (80%). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. ## Who this take is about - Detroit Lions — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/lions - Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chiefs - Buffalo Bills — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bills - Lamar Jackson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/lamar-jackson - Baltimore Ravens — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/ravens ## What others said about the same people - Chris Clark on Nikko Remigio: Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/99521265-d5c0-4db1-b2a0-fe77908ea0b3 (scored 0) - Gilberto Manzano on Josh Downs: Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/67d5af78-94ea-4ee2-a277-5e68347022de (scored 100) - Joshua Poniatowski on Josh Downs: Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d1752582-a799-48b9-984b-39bf7cb8b709 (scored 100) - Andrew Erickson on Josh Downs: Erickson floated Kansas City as the landing spot for Josh Downs and said a trade there would make them at least a WR3 rest of season; they also expect Rashee Rice to leave the Chiefs after this season as a free agent. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e97e28f2-31fc-4702-915c-63c38477e97d (scored 100) - Jordan Dajani on Josh Downs: After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f5af1657-8608-4071-a63e-0e7d6124e627 (scored 100) - Mike Kadlick on Josh Downs: Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/45c94482-ef71-413f-834b-2a246271691d (scored 100) ## More game outcome picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Sam Monson on New York Giants: Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f4cb7a1e-1380-4f08-b39b-1432b97db846 (scored 0) - Eva Geitheim on Washington Commanders: Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c011abef-0b18-41ad-acad-6a67dfbd41fd (scored 100) - Conor Orr on New York Giants: Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ba669379-043c-448a-a167-2f2e3695a52e (scored 0) - Albert Breer on New York Giants: Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fdc16abc-9ae2-4bf4-a327-8e9d9ae283b6 (scored 0) - Mitch Goldich on New York Giants: Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/706c628f-bb25-4892-b33e-84c81bfb6e4a (scored 0) - Matt Verderame on New York Giants: Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dfeb0994-1abf-414f-b153-d01b6e4e5365 (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=justin-penik