# Ben Shapiro: Shapiro forecasts a sweeping Republican midterm wave, arguing Democrats have no coherent message. He specifically calls Kathy Hochul to lose the New York governorship to Lee Zeldin, Cheri Beasley to lose North Carolina's Senate race, Mandela Barnes to lose to Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, Charlie Crist to be walloped by Ron DeSantis in Florida, and raises the prospect of Republicans reaching 54 Senate seats.

**Claimed:** Nov 2, 2022
**Pundit:** Ben Shapiro — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ben-shapiro
**Outlet:** The Ben Shapiro Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-ben-shapiro-show
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pfx.vpixl.com/2jSe3/claritaspod.com/measure/mgln.ai/e/121/traffic.megaphone.fm/BVDWV2843028815.mp3?updated=1763143291

5 checkable claims — 4 race winners and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 96 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> My sleeper pick for the democrat who definitely should win, who is not going to win.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **There is a serious possibility the Republicans walk away from the midterms with 54 seats in the senate.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess
- **Remember a time when Mandela Barnes is actually leading senator Ron Johnson in the polling? Well, no longer... Mandela Barnes about to have another think coming when the election results come in next Tuesday.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **No. It's because she's a bad candidate and she's about to lose. [on North Carolina senate Democrat candidate Sherry Beasley]**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Charlie Crist running for governor of Florida who's about to just get walloped. I mean, the polls have him down about 10 points to Ron DeSantis.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **So let's start with Kathy Hochul over in New York. My sleeper pick for the democrat who definitely should win, who is not going to win.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100)
- Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100)
- Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0)
- Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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