# Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. **Claimed:** Nov 3, 2026 **Pundit:** Carl Cannon — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/carl-cannon **Outlet:** RealClearPolitics Podcast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/realclearpolitics-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdcn.co/e/afp-295344-injected.calisto.simplecastaudio.com/de28783a-a808-4145-ac73-dfbf948fb0d0/episodes/8b78eddd-3bae-474d-b84f-ed295db59df0/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=de28783a-a808-4145-ac73-dfbf948fb0d0&awEpisodeId=8b78eddd-3bae-474d-b84f-ed295db59df0&feed=pzzjlbXr 11 checkable claims — 10 race winners and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. 9 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 77.8 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I just don't know that Susan Collins can defy gravity yet again. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “I think he's gonna drag down that ticket, and Sherrod Brown will will come back to Washington.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I don't think Darlene Graham Nardona is a very good candidate at all. But I think that state is probably too Republican for her to blow it.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I've been with Adam Hamilton before anybody heard his name. I I can't change now.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Carl? Yeah. Me too. [following Bevan's "So I think he wins that race" about El Sayed]” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “I think in the end, Josh Turek wins.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I think it's gonna be razor thin, but I think Taller Rico pulls it out.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Okay. I'm gonna take Tafoya... I just like to pick one upset, and this is the one I'm picking.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “I think I think, I think the Republicans just eat that out... And I I... The Ricketts holds on.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “I just don't know that Susan Collins can defy gravity yet again... So you're going with the Democrats for that. Yeah. So Troy Jackson.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I think it's gonna be... I think it's... I think it'll be more than I think it'll be more than 30.” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - “Alright. I'll flip a coin and say, Petola pulls it out.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) - Clay Travis: Clay Travis predicted a Republican sweep in Tennessee — Blackburn for governor, Hagerty for Senate and all nine House seats — said they were optimistic Republicans would flip the Michigan Senate seat from Democrats, and expected the Republican to win the New Hampshire governor's race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8c4341ac-5acc-449c-843e-4361312fe2e0 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=carl-cannon