# Bill Simmons: Simmons named Seattle and Chicago as the two NFC teams he most believes in to reach the Super Bowl, projected roughly 10 wins for both Pittsburgh and Minnesota, expected Lamar Jackson back on the field this week, and picked Baltimore to beat Buffalo and New England to beat Miami. **Claimed:** Oct 30, 2026 **Pundit:** Bill Simmons — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bill-simmons **Outlet:** The Bill Simmons Podcast (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-bill-simmons-podcast-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/GLT5741176164.mp3 7 checkable claims — 2 conference champions, 2 game outcome picks, 2 season win totals and 1 availability call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 2 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the rest of the room on every one. > They are my bet my life teams in the NFC, to get there. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **New England Patriots to beat Miami** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: New England Patriots - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Nov 1, 2026): Patriots by 7 · favorite pick, Patriots about 3 in 4 (74%). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Baltimore Ravens to beat Bills** - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Baltimore Ravens - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - Line: Closing line (Nov 1, 2026): Bills by 3 · underdog pick, Ravens 41%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade. - **Seattle Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl** - Kind: Conference Champions · About: Seattle Seahawks - Verdict: not settled yet - **Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with 10 wins** - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: Pittsburgh Steelers - Verdict: not settled yet - **Chicago Bears to reach the Super Bowl** - Kind: Conference Champions · About: Chicago Bears - Verdict: not settled yet - **Next one, Lamar Jackson. So ringer 107, he... They... He's gonna come up in a pick. I think he plays this week.** - Kind: Availability Calls · About: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens - Verdict: not settled yet - **Minnesota Vikings to finish with 10 wins** - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: Minnesota Vikings - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - New England Patriots — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/patriots - Baltimore Ravens — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/ravens - Seattle Seahawks — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/seahawks - Pittsburgh Steelers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/steelers - Chicago Bears — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bears - Lamar Jackson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/lamar-jackson - Minnesota Vikings — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/vikings ## What others said about the same people - John Middlekauff on Caleb Williams: Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. He is pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying he'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. He also sees Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/deaaf3f6-e53e-4080-a0ca-d5f872b54c6a (scored 0) - Jeremy Brener on Seattle Seahawks: Brener picked the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in Week 9 by a multi-score margin, giving a final score of 27-13, and expressed confidence Seattle would be fine with Drew Lock starting at quarterback. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7eb2d245-63d0-4be0-80ba-3f60197e2b16 (scored 100) - Albert Breer on Seattle Seahawks: Breer picks the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in their Week 9 NFC West matchup. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4d67a8a5-0c05-4abe-b2ca-f0cef8390b1d (scored 100) - Tyler Sullivan on Seattle Seahawks: Sullivan picks the Seahawks to win in Week 9. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dfca04b3-5c80-4a2e-b0de-8ac3a25f225b (scored 100) - Dave Richard on Seattle Seahawks: Richard picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d3db433e-52c6-42d1-a3b0-6b342aac8a9e (scored 100) - John Pluym on Seattle Seahawks: Pluym picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e3897747-c55f-4340-9e82-03f9730f87ba (scored 100) ## More conference champions The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Nick Wright on Los Angeles Rams: The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; he also picks New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. He calls Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5d16f975-ba4e-46f4-8717-8962b81c5bdf (scored 50) - Nick Wright on Denver Broncos: Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/afd8c9a0-6068-4bfc-8dac-3bcc196f1231 (scored 50) - AJ Hawk on Los Angeles Rams: Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC he stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/70ca2972-53a1-4559-bd03-94c5fede2f4e (scored 50) - Richard Sherman on Denver Broncos: Sherman refused to pick the 49ers-Seahawks divisional game, calling it a pick'em that comes down to the last possession, but he picked Chicago over the Rams, Denver over Buffalo, and Houston 17-9 over New England, while reaffirming his preseason call of the Broncos reaching the Super Bowl. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/06c20ff5-0935-4595-b749-983f422ee7e0 (scored 50) - Champ Bailey on Los Angeles Rams: Bailey picks the Broncos to beat the Bills in the divisional round, the Seahawks to beat the 49ers at home, and the Rams to beat the Bears; he then puts the Rams in the Super Bowl against Denver, with the Broncos winning their fourth championship. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ab14af73-9861-45c9-b19e-55773253b7fb (scored 50) - Brandon Carney on Los Angeles Rams: Carney sticks with the Rams as his Super Bowl winner, picks the Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks and Rams in the divisional round, and makes a series of head coaching landing-spot predictions plus fantasy takes on Colston Loveland. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2bf1bbe-9069-46d0-8b16-571d10a61b99 (scored 50) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=bill-simmons