# David Nir: Citing Daniel Donner's analysis of primary turnout shifts, he says Democrats are on track to win the national House popular vote by roughly 13 points in 2026 — a bigger margin than their 2018 wave — while acknowledging error bars of several points.

**Claimed:** Sep 24, 2026
**Pundit:** David Nir — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/david-nir
**Outlet:** The Downballot (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-downballot-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/217151630/367d34245f507cb7501f64d7af660967.mp3

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

Nothing to score yet: this grades once the result is in.

> And as a result, that leads to a prediction of Democrats winning the house popular vote by 13 points.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **And as a result, that leads to a prediction of Democrats winning the house popular vote by 13 points. In other words, we expect based on this, Democrats to do 16 points better than in 2022... so that would be a margin of 13 points.**
  - Kind: House Popular Vote Margins
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## More house popular vote margins

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Ben Shapiro: Shapiro argued the midterm environment was breaking toward Republicans: he predicted the GOP would win the national generic/House vote by five to seven points, said Ted Budd and Brian Kemp would cruise in North Carolina and Georgia, expected strong Republican gubernatorial candidates in Arizona and Georgia to pull Blake Masters and Herschel Walker to victory, said Joe Lombardo would win Nevada's governorship, and made Lee Zeldin beating Kathy Hochul in New York his 'sleeper pick.' — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a5348988-574a-41cd-b368-a9fa8a005b4c (scored 77.2)
- Lakshya Jain: In Split Ticket's final 2022 picks, forecasts Republicans winning 50 Senate seats to Democrats' 49 (with Georgia headed to a runoff), Republicans flipping the House with a 234-201 majority, and a national environment of roughly R+2. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/532b6947-16e0-4836-9c4a-15c89a1a3e8d (scored 92.8)
- Harrison Lavelle: Co-author of Split Ticket's final 2022 picks, forecasting a 50-49 Republican Senate edge short of a majority, a Republican House flip at 234-201, and a national environment around R+2. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/adbcf549-b4c7-4512-b2f0-f2fcf6b686ed (scored 92.8)
- G. Elliott Morris: Morris says both the polls and his model's non-poll "fundamentals" point to a strongly Democratic year, with his FiftyPlusOne House popular-vote forecast at roughly D+9. He also argues Henry Olsen's seat model understates Democrats by about 10 seats relative to Olsen's projected Democratic majority of 225–232. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/833db31e-b4f7-4c21-9c22-6a42269f2a1e (not settled)
- Daniel Donner: Analyzing a long-run relationship between midterm primary turnout and the House popular vote, he concludes that 2026 primary turnout points to Democrats winning the national House vote by about 13 points, and says either that or the generic-ballot's smaller edge would be enough for Democrats to retake the House. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4231af1c-a4e7-4f1c-a834-5ef64382b1d6 (not settled)
- Lakshya Jain: Despite his site's new nonpartisan polling average showing a razor-thin Democratic lead, he said he expects Republicans to win the national House popular vote and considers them clear favorites to take the House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a3bf7959-c1e8-49c7-a89a-21026c3726bd (not settled)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

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