# Gabe Fleisher: Asked to rank four possible outcomes, he said the most likely was a narrow Kamala Harris presidential win paired with a Democratic House and a Republican Senate, with a full Republican sweep second most likely and a Democratic sweep least likely. **Claimed:** Oct 30, 2024 **Pundit:** Gabe Fleisher — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/gabe-fleisher **Outlet:** Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/politics-politics-politics-justin-robert-young **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/150915632/c31b9be8d94ae692d2d97b68f8081632.mp3 3 checkable claims — 2 chamber control and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I I do think Harris' slight edge. It's basically tossed by Harris' latest for the presidency, but then Republican senate. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **I I think most... Honestly, if I were to rank them, I'd say most likely would be... I I I do think Harris' slight edge. It's basically tossed by Harris' latest for the presidency, but then Republican senate.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **She wins the presidency narrowly. Democrats win the house narrowly. But because of the map, Republicans take the senate... I'd say most likely would be... I I I do think Harris' slight edge.** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **It's basically tossed by Harris' latest for the presidency, but then Republican senate. So it's that Sarah knows the most likely** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More chamber control The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Sam Wang: Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b4bf6d49-8e25-46a3-92f0-ea5d697121ef (scored 0) - Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 100) - David Pakman: Reviewing the final 2024 forecasts, Pakman said the Senate outcome was essentially settled and stated his own expectation that Republicans would win control of the chamber. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/45530dc9-dd97-4b13-ba4a-53e34dcf9e3f (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/908b2e75-8d71-4514-8d1d-948e8b3190a3 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=gabe-fleisher