# Tom Pelissero: Pelissero predicts Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders and that Ty Simpson is the only other QB in the class seen as a possible early starter.

**Claimed:** Feb 26, 2026
**Pundit:** Tom Pelissero — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tom-pelissero
**Outlet:** The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-rich-eisen-show-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.megaphone.fm/ESP5487571126.mp3?updated=1772135985

2 checkable claims — 1 mock draft pick and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 44.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> You have a draft where Fernando Mendoza, we all assume and believe he's going number one to the Raiders.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board**
  - Kind: Position Order Calls · About: Ty Simpson
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 39.7 for a naive guess

## Who this take is about

- Fernando Mendoza — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/fernando-mendoza
- Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/raiders
- Ty Simpson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/ty-simpson

## What others said about the same people

- Steven Ruiz on Las Vegas Raiders: Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a30ff469-4972-4c48-855b-ba984e4de9d0 (scored 100)
- Nate Tice on Las Vegas Raiders: Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b8378e16-ea5c-4107-a883-28aaf0e71134 (scored 100)
- Chris Broussard on Las Vegas Raiders: Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dee7585c-6da6-4afc-9954-ff32cf8de4e3 (scored 100)
- Hondo Carpenter on Patrick Johnson: Carpenter says the right guard competition currently favors Jackson Powers-Johnson over Caleb Rogers, though he expects Rogers to get starts at some point this season, and he projects veteran DE Patrick Johnson to make the 53-man roster. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ca5f809a-068e-4d04-b0fc-e392ed8f0c13 (scored 100)
- Hondo Carpenter on Aidan O'Connell: Carpenter predicts special-teams linebacker Segun Olubi will make the Raiders' 53-man roster, with Las Vegas carrying five inside linebackers. He also notes projections that the Raiders keep all three quarterbacks, including Aidan O'Connell. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/bef79899-9859-4758-9cb0-e3400c3a6c8e (scored 100)
- Hondo Carpenter on Kirk Cousins: Carpenter projects the Raiders' 53-man roster will include 10 defensive backs (four safeties and six cornerbacks) and three quarterbacks, with Kirk Cousins kept barring a compelling trade offer. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d646fde9-b295-4ee8-a853-a1b9bfc8fb20 (scored 100)

## More position order calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Ryan Wilson on J.J. McCarthy: Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/44cc5859-8b2b-4fbf-b5c0-62c635f2e357 (scored 100)
- Nick Shook on Olaivavega Ioane: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 35.36)
- Rhett Lewis on Tyler Shough: Lewis names Louisville's Tyler Shough as the new QB3 of the class — the third quarterback off the board — and views Milroe as a second-round selection. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d116ab63-5271-4b18-838b-29bb93d58530 (scored 100)
- Nick Wright on Carnell Tate: Nick Wright laid out his full mock draft 3.0 for the 2026 NFL Draft, pick by pick through the first round, and also predicted AJ Brown would finish top five in the NFL in receiving yards with the Patriots. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/77faa345-d736-4a90-8185-b1b92c789e5a (scored 100)
- Todd McShay on K.C. Concepcion: McShay's mock draft 4.0 has Fernando Mendoza and David Bailey going 1-2 to the Raiders and Jets, the Saints trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Titans taking Jeremiah Love at 4, the Giants taking Francis Mauigoa at 5 (though he'd now switch to Sonny Styles), the Cowboys trading up to 6, the Jets trading up to 7 for Carnell Tate, and Arizona trading up to 30 for Ty Simpson. He also predicts seven offensive tackles go in the first round and that Love, Styles, Downs and Reese all go in the top seven. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cd11036a-b55c-47a9-92e8-5b088260ca47 (scored 100)
- Keith Sanchez on Jordyn Tyson: As relayed by Harrison, Sanchez's latest mock draft has Carnell Tate going to Washington, Jordan Tyson as the first receiver off the board at No. 5 to the Giants, Makai Lemmon at 11 and Chris Brasel at 30 to Miami, Sonny Styles at No. 8 to New Orleans, and Caleb Downs at No. 13 to the Rams. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/226ec0b5-6535-45ba-8b77-609e3e51ca6e (scored 70.71)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

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