# J. Miles Coleman: Crystal Ball's updated ratings move Alaska's Senate race to Leans Democratic for Mary Peltola, shift Alaska's governorship to Leans Democratic for Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, downgrade Oregon's governor race to Leans Democratic while still expecting Tina Kotek to win, and move South Carolina's Senate race to Likely Republican for Darline Graham, with Minnesota's open Senate seat rated Likely Democratic for Peggy Flanagan. The overall ratings tally gives Democrats 213 House seats and 49 Senate seats at least leaning their way, Republicans 202 and 47. **Claimed:** Oct 6, 2026 **Pundit:** J. Miles Coleman — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/j-miles-coleman **Outlet:** Sabato's Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/sabato-s-crystal-ball-uva-center-for-politics **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/four-rating-changes-headlined-by 9 checkable claims — 5 race winners and 4 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. 3 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls. > But our general sense for months has been that Alaska, a small, quirky state with a unique election system, was perhaps the most promising red state Senate target for Democrats. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “Minnesota's open-seat race, where Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) has only held a modest lead over former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya (R) in a race we call Likely Democratic” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “We'd still expect Kotek to pull it out in the end... This race moves from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Finally, we're flagging South Carolina's Senate race as a Likely Republican sleeper... Graham should be fine in the end” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “but the structure of this race and the polling points to the Democrats. This also moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - “Of the Democrats' red state Senate targets, Alaska may be the most promising, and we are moving the race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - “SENATE : 49 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R, 4 Toss-ups.” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - “SENATE : 49 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R, 4 Toss-ups.” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - “HOUSE : 213 at least Leans D, 202 at least Leans R, 20 Toss-ups.” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - “HOUSE : 213 at least Leans D, 202 at least Leans R, 20 Toss-ups.” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=j-miles-coleman