# Jake Ciely: Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze. **Claimed:** Aug 23, 2025 **Pundit:** Jake Ciely — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jake-ciely **Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/top-10-breakout-candidates-middle-late-round-fantasy-football-draft-targets-ep-1664 14 checkable claims — 6 sleeper calls, 4 depth chart calls, 2 player season numbers and 2 positional finishes — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 18 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 14 have settled, averaging 62.7 out of 100, against 58.8 for a naive guess at the same calls. > We might be looking at Bryce Young by the end of the year as a fringe QB one and he's outside the top twenty. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Braelon Allen to outplay his draft cost (those mid rounds)** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Braelon Allen, New York Jets - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Romeo Doubs to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirty four)** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Romeo Doubs, Chicago Bears - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Marvin Mims Jr. to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver fifty eight in ECR)** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Ricky Pearsall to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver forty two in ADP)** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Cedric Tillman to outplay his draft cost (going super late in draft)** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Bryce Young to outplay his draft cost (he's outside the top twenty)** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Tucker Kraft to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points** - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 16.67 for a naive guess - **Caleb Williams to record 30 passing tds** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears - Verdict: scored 80 out of 100, against 24.61 for a naive guess - **Caleb Williams to record 4,000 passing yards** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears - Verdict: scored 97.1 out of 100, against 31.73 for a naive guess - **Bryce Young to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points** - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers - Verdict: scored 41.67 out of 100, against 91.67 for a naive guess - **Cedric Tillman to be 2nd on the depth chart** - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 91.67 for a naive guess - **Marvin Mims Jr. to be 2nd on the depth chart** - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos - Verdict: scored 91.67 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Chris Rodriguez Jr. to be 3rd on the depth chart** - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Chris Rodriguez Jr., Washington Commanders - Verdict: scored 91.67 out of 100, against 83.33 for a naive guess - **Matthew Golden to be 1st on the depth chart** - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers - Verdict: scored 75 out of 100, against 83.33 for a naive guess ## Who this take is about - Braelon Allen — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/braelon-allen - New York Jets — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jets - Romeo Doubs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/romeo-doubs - Chicago Bears — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bears - Marvin Mims Jr. — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/marvin-mims-jr - Denver Broncos — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/broncos - Ricky Pearsall — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/ricky-pearsall - San Francisco 49ers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/49ers - Cedric Tillman — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/cedric-tillman - Cleveland Browns — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/browns - Bryce Young — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/bryce-young - Carolina Panthers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/panthers - Tucker Kraft — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/tucker-kraft - Green Bay Packers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/packers - Caleb Williams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-williams - Chris Rodriguez Jr. — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/chris-rodriguez-jr - Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/commanders - Matthew Golden — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/matthew-golden ## What others said about the same people - Chris Simms on San Francisco 49ers: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 88.1) - Connor Rogers on Carolina Panthers: Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/83d1e88b-95a0-45ba-83d3-f86297170c6c (scored 0) - Steven Ruiz on Denver Broncos: Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a30ff469-4972-4c48-855b-ba984e4de9d0 (scored 100) - Nate Tice on Denver Broncos: Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b8378e16-ea5c-4107-a883-28aaf0e71134 (scored 100) - Chris Simms on Green Bay Packers: Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b12420c5-837c-4a24-8a8e-c74b10cc697c (scored 9.52) - Nate Tice on Chicago Bears: Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b6211c80-3d1c-46b8-8a0c-151fc0ba92de (scored 0) ## More sleeper calls The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Derek Brown on Travis Hunter: Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/effe2fda-3dcb-489f-a1e1-f8fa5b11ada7 (scored 100) - Chris Welsh on Tyler Warren: Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9f0f2132-f3b8-4813-b2b1-374b827d86a8 (scored 100) - Pat Fitzmaurice on Rashee Rice: Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e36f1287-466c-4889-a7ea-c9d86f4b5182 (scored 0) - Joe Pisapia on Tyreek Hill: Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c3c95c1c-64a4-42b6-9389-58d5fb5b27d1 (scored 0) - Derek Brown on George Pickens: Brown's five-to-one breakout list was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Tucker Kraft, Ricky Pearsall, George Pickens and Tetairoa McMillan; he forecasts Brian Robinson Jr. being cut or traded, Kraft finishing as a top-five/six tight end, Pickens as a top-15 receiver and McMillan spiking for double-digit touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9d95277c-e110-411f-8934-9a1282c3286e (scored 100) - Ryan Wormeli on Calvin Ridley: Warmley ranks Nico Collins his WR4 and Drake London his WR5, argues Ja'Marr Chase should be the No. 1 fantasy player again, has Tetairoa McMillan inside his top 20 receivers, and says Emeka Egbuka could be a top-24 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0716e9e8-c302-49d3-bd08-21cb0a8941e6 (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=jake-ciely