# Chuck Todd: Todd gives their updated ranking of the ten Senate seats most likely to flip (plus six "also receiving votes"), says they are confident Democrats net North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, calls Alaska a narrow Democratic favorite, and rates Iowa, South Carolina and Nebraska as slightly Republican. They also say they remain bullish on Democrats taking Senate control, expects Sununu to fall short in New Hampshire, expects the Republican to hold off the independent in Montana, and thinks Nevada's lone Republican House seat may flip. **Claimed:** Oct 21, 2026 **Pundit:** Chuck Todd — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/chuck-todd **Outlet:** The Chuck ToddCast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-chuck-toddcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/claritaspod.com/measure/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/p57137/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/c749d540-b5b7-42b1-a855-b33100f844fa/0d8f00a9-950d-4b90-a12d-b4ea000539f7/audio.mp3?in_playlist=8e017e60-9c2d-418d-97bb-b33100f84504 12 checkable claims — 10 race winners, 1 control of congres and 1 seats most likely to flip — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. 10 of 12 have settled so far, averaging 80 out of 100, against 30 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I'm still pretty bullish on Democratic chances to take control of the Senate. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “But in New Hampshire's case, I think Sununu is going to come up short.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “I think the real question is, does Cooper's victory have coattails in North Carolina?... North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, I think, frankly, are in the lean already lean category.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “It really looks like... Nevada's lone Republican congressional district might temporarily flip because of a bad, flawed nominee.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I'm still pretty bullish on Democratic chances to take control of the Senate.” - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “those are the three I'm most confident in for Democrats... I'm pretty confident they're going to net those three... North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, I think, frankly, are in the lean already lean category.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “In the Montana case, the independent just, there's just, there's too many people on the ballot for the independent to overtake the Republican in that one.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “those are the three I'm most confident in for Democrats... I'm pretty confident they're going to net those three... North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, I think, frankly, are in the lean already lean category.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I just don't see the path yet for Osborne. I see the path to 48. I don't see the path to 50... Iowa, South Carolina, Nebraska's, you know, very close. But right now tilting to the GOP.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Darlene Graham, slightly favored over Annie Andrews.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Ashley Hinson, slightly favored over Turek.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Let's start with Alaska. I think Democrats are the favorite here, but it's a narrow margin.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - “So we start with my top 10... number one is still number one. And that is North Carolina... Number two, Ohio... Number three on the list is Texas... Let's start with Alaska... they're in my number four slot. My number five slot is Maine... Number six, Kansas... last on my pure toss up list is Michigan... My final three in the top 10, eight, nine, and 10 are Iowa, South Carolina, and Nebraska... If we're playing the AP poll game here, Minnesota, Mississippi, South Dakota, New Hampshire, Idaho, Montana. That is my order of likelihood to flip.” - Kind: Seats Most Likely to Flip - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=chuck-todd