# Jesse Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would end up with 54 Senate seats and pick up well over 40 House seats in the midterms. **Claimed:** Nov 4, 2022 **Pundit:** Jesse Kelly — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jesse-kelly **Outlet:** The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-clay-travis-and-buck-sexton-show **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/arttrk.com/p/D5CA5/mgln.ai/e/28/pdst.fm/e/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/57c236de-aec0-46c1-b141-ae3c00026d77/cb23a189-bdb9-45b5-9e3e-af430140f5cd/audio.mp3?in_playlist=1776c4cc-50a1-410f-a2de-ae3c00026dfa 2 checkable claims — 2 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 2 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 67.5 for a naive guess at the same calls. > We will have fifty four Senate seats. We will pick up well north of forty seats in the half. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “We will pick up well north of forty seats in the half the twenty thirty thirty five, it will be over four.” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess - “We will have fifty four Senate seats.” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess ## More seat counts The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 45) - Glenn Beck: Beck forecast Republicans winning about 53 or 54 Senate seats and clearly taking the House, with GOP wins in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire Senate races. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f9c85b52-0829-4303-9e70-7fd00e9a17fc (scored 20) - Doug Schoen: Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/386f50c7-6523-4997-8d80-f0d9bae3ac4b (scored 0) - Jim Geraghty: Garrity forecast a large Republican wave: a GOP House majority of roughly 229-241 seats, with their final call at 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats, and a 51-48 Republican Senate edge with Bolduc, Laxalt and Johnson winning while Georgia goes to a runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4bdd2c52-9d51-432d-8366-c693d886726e (scored 35) - Ben Shapiro: On election-day 2022, Shapiro predicted Republicans would end up with 53 to 54 Senate seats and thus a Senate majority, with Blake Masters winning Arizona and Adam Laxalt taking Nevada, while expressing doubt about New Hampshire. They also said Brian Kemp would crush Stacey Abrams in Georgia's governor's race and that a red wave would carry Republicans in the House. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1c0cbfad-0103-4466-b426-ad65b638d7f0 (scored 20) - Steve Deace: On the eve of the midterms Deace projected a 42-seat Republican gain in the House and dismissed the idea that Republicans could take the House without also taking the Senate. They also expected Kari Lake to win the Arizona governorship and suggested Laxalt would win Nevada's Senate race even if their margin were squeezed. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/65d9dec6-348b-4e7c-921c-f9ddd93ae844 (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=jesse-kelly