# Lakshya Jain: Split Ticket's Senate model update keeps Republicans favored to win an outright Senate majority, with Democrats given only a 25% chance of holding the chamber, and issues ratings for individual races: Fischer (NE) Likely Republican, Scott (FL) Leans Republican, Rosen (NV) Likely Democratic, Casey (PA) Leans Democratic, Kaine (VA) off the board, Montana Leans Republican, Texas lean-to-likely Republican, and Maryland Safe Democratic, with Gallego expected to beat Lake by more than six points. **Claimed:** Sep 7, 2024 **Pundit:** Lakshya Jain — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lakshya-jain **Outlet:** Split Ticket — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://split-ticket.org/2024/09/07/temperature-check-republicans-remain-favored-to-flip-senate/ 17 checkable claims — 12 race winners, 3 race margins, 1 control of congres and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 17 have settled, averaging 86.9 out of 100, against 69.5 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Republicans remain favored to win an outright majority. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “The race is currently Likely Democratic , and while the presidency is anyone's game right now, we expect Rosen to hold this seat” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “One new addition to the Leans Republican column is Florida... Republican incumbent Rick Scott remains a favorite in his reelection bid” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “she also holds an edge in candidate fundraising and is running in a state Harris is likely to win by 30 points” - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 85.4 out of 100, against 53.3 for a naive guess - “Democrats Tammy Baldwin (WI), Bob Casey (PA), and Elissa Slotkin (MI) all remain poised to win reelection” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “especially as Trump is likely to comfortably win Texas” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Why, then, is Deb Fischer's race now at Likely Republican ? ... the model now projects that Fischer has a 92% chance of winning.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Tim Kaine is simply a very strong incumbent in a Biden +10 state that Harris is likely to comfortably win” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “our model continues to hold the Maryland race at safe Democratic, despite Hogan's stronger-than-expected polling” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “At that time, Republicans were projected to take an outright majority in the chamber with 51 seats... Since then, the topline has remained the same” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 60 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess - “from Likely to Leans Democratic , as Democratic odds dip from 81% to 78%... We still expect Casey to win” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Texas, meanwhile, remains at the border of lean and likely Republican... while we expect Allred to outperform Kamala Harris, it likely won't be enough” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “While the model expects Fischer to eventually win her race by a double-digit margin, the polling average points to a much closer contest.” - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 67.2 out of 100, against 32.8 for a naive guess - “the model continues to consider the race Leans Republican. A Tester upset is by no means out of the picture (he has just a 26% chance of winning at the moment)” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Democrats Tammy Baldwin (WI), Bob Casey (PA), and Elissa Slotkin (MI) all remain poised to win reelection” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “at the moment, we expect her to lose by over 6 points, which would mark the worst Senatorial performance for an Arizona Republican in decades” - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 64 out of 100, against 76 for a naive guess - “No poll shows this race as being competitive, and our model expects him to win handily as well.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “although Democratic odds have ticked up a touch ( our latest model gives them a 25% chance of holding the Senate) , Republicans remain favored to win an outright majority” - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=lakshya-jain