# Erick-Woods Erickson: Erickson argues that Harris's late-campaign travel to Texas, Kentucky and Florida — states he says she cannot carry — mirrors Bob Dole's 1996 pivot to down-ballot races, signaling she will lose the presidency to Trump while trying to protect congressional seats. **Claimed:** Oct 22, 2024 **Pundit:** Erick-Woods Erickson — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/erick-woods-erickson **Outlet:** Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/erick-erickson-newsletter-substack **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://ewerickson.substack.com/p/breaking-harris-campaign-gives-up 4 checkable claims — 4 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 4 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls. > It signals the presidential race is all but over. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Harris and her team have decided to go to Texas, Kentucky, and Florida — three states she will not win.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Harris and her team have decided to go to Texas, Kentucky, and Florida — three states she will not win.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Harris and her team have decided to go to Texas, Kentucky, and Florida — three states she will not win.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **But this is not what a winning campaign does in the last twelve days of the campaign... Harris is giving up trying to win the White House... It signals the presidential race is all but over.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) - Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 100) - Tim Miller: Miller predicted Kamala Harris would hold the blue wall states and Nevada and win a narrow Electoral College victory with 276 electoral votes, while also saying Florida and Texas would stay out of reach for Democrats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5506a84f-61ca-4667-8670-a8fb3229ae2d (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=erick-woods-erickson