# Chris Cillizza: Cillizza expects Rob Sand to win Iowa's governorship, thinks Lindsey Graham, Pete Ricketts and Cindy Hyde-Smith will each survive narrowly, considers Susan Collins an underdog in Maine, and assumes Joe Lombardo holds the Nevada governorship despite Democratic-friendly market prices. **Claimed:** Oct 6, 2026 **Pundit:** Chris Cillizza — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/chris-cillizza **Outlet:** The Chuck ToddCast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-chuck-toddcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/claritaspod.com/measure/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/p57137/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/ce51a7ec-5866-40a2-aa6a-b46d00f2a7c5/b14ae504-0a39-4086-a960-b4da0186e4e6/audio.mp3?in_playlist=8e017e60-9c2d-418d-97bb-b33100f84504 6 checkable claims — 6 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. > They're probably going to win the game 2-1. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **I think that Susan Collins might win. Now, I don't think it's a 50-50. I think she's an underdog.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **And I think that it's 2-1 for Darlene Graham, for Pete Ricketts, for Cindy Highsmith. They're probably going to win the game 2-1.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **Now the only statewide elected official is Rob Sand, who is probably going to win for governor.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **And I think that it's 2-1 for Darlene Graham, for Pete Ricketts, for Cindy Highsmith. They're probably going to win the game 2-1.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **And I think that it's 2-1 for Darlene Graham, for Pete Ricketts, for Cindy Highsmith. They're probably going to win the game 2-1.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **Nevada governor has Aaron Ford, 52, the Democrat. I mean, I would assume Lombardo there.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=chris-cillizza