# Joel Klatt: Klatt said Texas will not make the College Football Playoff, picked Oregon to beat USC by 10-13 points, predicted Lane Kiffin will leave Ole Miss for Florida, and forecast big NFL draft outcomes for Arvell Reese, Caleb Downs and Fernando Mendoza.

**Claimed:** Nov 19, 2025
**Pundit:** Joel Klatt — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/joel-klatt
**Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd/the-herd-hour-2-nfl-playoff-predictions-joel-klatt-discusses-controversial-college-football-playoff-rankings

3 checkable claims — 3 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 95.8 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> Mendoza is going to be easily a top three pick, maybe the top pick in the entire NFL draft.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Fernando Mendoza to be picked “top three pick, maybe the top pick” (picks 1–3)**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Fernando Mendoza
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Arvell Reese to be picked “top three pick” (picks 1–3)**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Arvell Reese
  - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Caleb Downs to be picked “top ten pick” (picks 1–10)**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs
  - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess

## Who this take is about

- Fernando Mendoza — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/fernando-mendoza
- Arvell Reese — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/arvell-reese
- Caleb Downs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-downs

## What others said about the same people

- Walt on Fernando Mendoza: In a running series of coach/GM hiring and firing grades, Walt projects Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 overall pick of the Raiders in the 2026 draft and has LSU's Garrett Nussmeier going No. 2 overall in their 2026 mock draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/29bb2d31-fbe3-40db-b378-be5ba5d990b0 (scored 100)
- Ross Jackson on Caleb Downs: Jackson predicts the Saints will stay put and pick at No. 8 overall rather than trading up, and after Mickey Loomis' press conference they now lean toward New Orleans taking a defensive back there — either LSU cornerback Mansoor Delaine or Ohio State safety Caleb Downs — while still viewing Miami edge rusher Ruben Bain Jr. as a likely selection. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5e323d7a-8d67-43cc-a9f9-a18904a22a18 (scored 87.81)
- Jaime Eisner on Arvell Reese: A seven-round Jets mock draft projecting New York to take Ohio State's Arvell Reese at No. 2 and Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson at No. 16, followed by Ty Simpson, Brandon Cisse, Jalon Kilgore, Tyreak Sapp, Kaelon Black, Fernando Carmona and Trebor Pena. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ab0fb4f4-96ef-49b5-95af-ce16ddebe50c (scored 87.81)
- Aaron Ladd on Arvell Reese: Before the Chiefs' pick at No. 6, Ladd predicted Kansas City had traded up to take edge rusher Arvel Reese. After the pick, they framed Mansour Delaine as the immediate replacement for Trent McDuffie as the Chiefs' No. 1 cornerback. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f2d2b760-c7eb-48c2-b5f5-2235ff6868cf (scored 95.76)
- JC Pearson on Arvell Reese: Pearson also expected the Chiefs' trade up to No. 6 to be for Arvel Reese, and after the pick said Delaine would step in as Kansas City's day-one No. 1 cornerback. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cb64f2a7-5bc0-4a4e-8651-4458a3cc4eb5 (scored 95.76)
- Danny Parkins on Caleb Downs: Danny Parkins presented their one-and-only 2026 mock draft, including trades: Mendoza at 1 to the Raiders, David Bailey second to the Jets, the Cowboys trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Bears trading up to 16 for Kadyn Proctor, and Ty Simpson going to Arizona at 32 at the end of round one. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d98bca2f-5fc3-4f68-8389-30f9a2cb906f (scored 91.7)

## More mock draft picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Chris Simms on Malachi Corley: Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c0fd4647-2de8-4a5f-bac2-950fed303ee9 (scored 11.46)
- Todd McShay on Keelon Russell: While breaking down LSU's offense, McShay called receiver Jackson Harris a top-50 NFL draft prospect, and later said LSU's Sam Levitt and Alabama's Keelan Russell are potential top-10 picks in a future draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/15d40546-2ab9-4ab8-b5bd-ed0ef7f26ae5 (scored 0)
- Philip Hughes on Kyle Kennard: Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/605a686a-b5f1-4611-82b4-961abf8de93e (scored 33.86)
- Blaine Grisak on Brian Thomas Jr.: Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/627bcf5d-9f1d-4a34-a1b7-53b8f0aebc40 (scored 84.09)
- Charlie Campbell on Xavier Williams: Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2dd4bf46-e5eb-4dff-8500-95d9fdbd2986 (scored 0)
- Walt on Garrett Nussmeier: In a running series of coach/GM hiring and firing grades, Walt projects Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 overall pick of the Raiders in the 2026 draft and has LSU's Garrett Nussmeier going No. 2 overall in their 2026 mock draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/29bb2d31-fbe3-40db-b378-be5ba5d990b0 (scored 0)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

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