# Saagar Enjeti: Arguing that the New York Times/Siena polls missed by roughly five points in the same states in 2020, he said he would bet on the Republican in each of the key Senate battlegrounds except possibly Arizona, and that if forced to bet on Senate control he would put his money on Republicans. **Claimed:** Nov 1, 2022 **Pundit:** Saagar Enjeti — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/saagar-enjeti **Outlet:** Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/breaking-points-with-krystal-and-saagar **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/e7fd5ae7-7621-4e41-9b85-b0ab0164b634/918b5f1e-6a80-4995-ac5b-b0ac0002bf1d/audio.mp3?in_playlist=4c1a5135-4197-47c9-b19b-b0ab0164b667 4 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 4 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I concur Look, I mean, if I had to bet, I'd put money on the Republicans. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **So when you consider that, I would probably be the Republican canon in every single one of these races, just except maybe Arizona.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **if you look at Nevada, they had Biden up by six... which actually that means that Laxalt, if you factor in the same thing, would be winning... I would probably be the Republican canon in every single one of these races, just except maybe Arizona.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I concur Look, I mean, if I had to bet, I'd put money on the Republicans. That being said, been wrong.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **So when you consider that, I would probably be the Republican canon in every single one of these races, just except maybe Arizona.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=saagar-enjeti