# Mel Kiper: Kiper's latest mock draft, as described on the show, had Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 to Las Vegas, safety Caleb Downs No. 2 to the Jets, Arbel Reese No. 4 to Tennessee, and edge rusher Ruben Behn to Cincinnati in the first round. **Claimed:** Feb 25, 2026 **Pundit:** Mel Kiper — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mel-kiper **Outlet:** NFL Live (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/nfl-live-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.megaphone.fm/ESP1825422470.mp3?updated=1772057649 4 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 87.8 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Zero surprise at the top. Fernando Mendoza can start house hunting in Vegas. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Arvell Reese to be picked at number 4** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Arvell Reese, Tennessee Titans - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Caleb Downs to be picked at number 2** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs, New York Jets - Verdict: scored 67.71 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Ruben Behn to be picked “round one”** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Ruben Behn, Cincinnati Bengals - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Fernando Mendoza — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/fernando-mendoza - Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/raiders - Arvell Reese — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/arvell-reese - Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/titans - Caleb Downs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-downs - New York Jets — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jets - Ruben Behn — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/ruben-behn - Cincinnati Bengals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bengals ## What others said about the same people - Chris Simms on Cincinnati Bengals: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 40.48) - Chris Long on Cincinnati Bengals: Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3df9ea25-e57f-4fd7-b20c-c910a1c3633a (scored 0) - Steven Ruiz on Las Vegas Raiders: Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a30ff469-4972-4c48-855b-ba984e4de9d0 (scored 100) - Nate Tice on Las Vegas Raiders: Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b8378e16-ea5c-4107-a883-28aaf0e71134 (scored 100) - Matt Harmon on Cincinnati Bengals: Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/21a71025-ab65-4716-ac2c-e77ad5ce3348 (scored 100) - Nate Tice on Cincinnati Bengals: Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b6211c80-3d1c-46b8-8a0c-151fc0ba92de (scored 73.81) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Ryan Wilson on J.J. McCarthy: Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/44cc5859-8b2b-4fbf-b5c0-62c635f2e357 (scored 36.92) - Lance Zierlein on Jeremiyah Love: Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf600df8-87eb-492b-9d91-f7a2b39104ac (scored 100) - Nick Shook on Max Iheanachor: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 87.81) - Gregg Rosenthal on K.C. Concepcion: Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8fae9a3a-7fd8-454c-99cc-0a8400c35d7d (scored 67.71) - Daniel Jeremiah on Keyron Crawford: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 80.52) - Daniel Jeremiah on Carnell Tate: Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/48a1d189-dc0f-4250-aa3b-0e27119c733a (scored 91.7) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=mel-kiper