# Ryan Wormeli: Warmley expects Derrick Henry to post another huge rushing season in Baltimore, sees real upside in Brian Robinson Jr. as Washington's lead back, and calls Javonte Williams, Justice Hill, Jordan Mason and Bijan Robinson values at their current costs.

**Claimed:** May 31, 2025
**Pundit:** Ryan Wormeli — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ryan-wormeli
**Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/will-saquon-barkley-bust-the-top-50-running-backs-for-the-2025-season-ep-1580

8 checkable claims — 4 player season numbers and 4 sleeper calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 8 have settled, averaging 54.8 out of 100, against 26.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> if he's healthy this year, he's scoring another twelve touchdowns, He's getting fifteen hundred rushing yards in a healthy season

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Bijan Robinson to outplay his draft cost (third or fourth pick)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Justice Hill to outplay his draft cost (RB sixty six)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Javonte Williams to outplay his draft cost (RB thirty seven)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Jordan Mason to outplay his draft cost (outside the top forty running backs)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Brian Robinson to record 12 rushing tds**
  - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Brian Robinson to record 1,200 rushing yards**
  - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 35.85 for a naive guess
- **Derrick Henry to record 12 rushing tds**
  - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
  - Verdict: scored 50 out of 100, against 28.96 for a naive guess
- **Derrick Henry to record 1,500 rushing yards**
  - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
  - Verdict: scored 88.09 out of 100, against 44.19 for a naive guess

## Who this take is about

- Bijan Robinson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/bijan-robinson
- Atlanta Falcons — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/falcons
- Justice Hill — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/justice-hill
- Baltimore Ravens — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/ravens
- Javonte Williams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/javonte-williams
- Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cowboys
- Jordan Mason — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jordan-mason
- Minnesota Vikings — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/vikings
- Brian Robinson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/brian-robinson
- Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/commanders
- Derrick Henry — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/derrick-henry

## What others said about the same people

- Chris Simms on Baltimore Ravens: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 97.62)
- Nate Tice on Baltimore Ravens: Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b8378e16-ea5c-4107-a883-28aaf0e71134 (scored 100)
- Steven Ruiz on Baltimore Ravens: Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a30ff469-4972-4c48-855b-ba984e4de9d0 (scored 100)
- Sam Monson on Minnesota Vikings: Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0b810ffd-fd93-4ea2-a208-b1353dea5fb0 (scored 100)
- Nate Tice on Dallas Cowboys: Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b6211c80-3d1c-46b8-8a0c-151fc0ba92de (scored 100)
- Carter Bahns on Jeshaun Jones: A CBS Sports piece expects suspended Vikings receiver Jeshaun Jones to lose his roster battle and be cut by the Aug. 30 deadline, given Minnesota's established receiver group. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/98c7155f-d05c-43cb-8c03-4f50d43211a8 (scored 0)

## More sleeper calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Derek Brown on Travis Hunter: Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/effe2fda-3dcb-489f-a1e1-f8fa5b11ada7 (scored 100)
- Tom Strachan on Ricky Pearsall: Tom Strachan backed Xavier Worthy, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Darnell Mooney, Zay Flowers, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter as values at their draft costs, while avoiding Jerry Jeudy and the Cleveland receivers. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c42eacc5-eb10-4103-a94d-50545a487cbb (scored 100)
- Chris Welsh on Tyler Warren: Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9f0f2132-f3b8-4813-b2b1-374b827d86a8 (scored 100)
- Pat Fitzmaurice on Rashee Rice: Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e36f1287-466c-4889-a7ea-c9d86f4b5182 (scored 0)
- Joe Pisapia on Tyreek Hill: Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c3c95c1c-64a4-42b6-9389-58d5fb5b27d1 (scored 0)
- Jake Ciely on Braelon Allen: Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6b5a40bc-e349-48a1-ad37-18ee448ebe75 (scored 0)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

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