# Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.

**Claimed:** Nov 6, 2024
**Pundit:** Erick-Woods Erickson — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/erick-woods-erickson
**Outlet:** Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/erick-erickson-newsletter-substack
**How it reached us:** published in writing
**Original:** https://ewerickson.substack.com/p/it-is-official-the-gop-captures-the

2 checkable claims — 1 chamber control and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> it is now safe to say the GOP will be in charge of the Senate

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **the Republican Party will control the United States Senate... it is now safe to say the GOP will be in charge of the Senate.**
  - Kind: Chamber Control
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **In a few hours, Jon Tester is expected to lose.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess

## More chamber control

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100)
- Sam Wang: Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b4bf6d49-8e25-46a3-92f0-ea5d697121ef (scored 0)
- Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 100)
- David Pakman: Reviewing the final 2024 forecasts, Pakman said the Senate outcome was essentially settled and stated his own expectation that Republicans would win control of the chamber. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/45530dc9-dd97-4b13-ba4a-53e34dcf9e3f (scored 100)
- Sean Trende: Trende said flatly that Harris will not win Iowa, and that the Senate outcome will range from 51 to 57 Republican seats, leaving Republicans in the majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e354f588-f8ce-4a9d-b563-56837b85215f (scored 100)
- Lakshya Jain: Split Ticket's final 2024 forecast calls the presidency a tossup with Harris the narrowest favorite at 53% and exactly 270 electoral votes, carried by Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; it gives Republicans a 73% chance of taking the Senate at 52-48 while Democrats have a 53% chance of a 219-216 House majority, and it rates dozens of individual Senate, House and governor races. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5a57d1ed-c7db-49ba-b385-900b5d93d6c5 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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