# Gabe Fleisher: Asked to pick among three midterm scenarios, Fleisher chose the middle one: Democrats win the House while Republicans hold the Senate with a slim majority. He also said he would not be surprised if Republican Senate candidates in Texas, Iowa and Kansas end up winning comfortably despite polling. **Claimed:** Sep 22, 2026 **Pundit:** Gabe Fleisher — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/gabe-fleisher **Outlet:** Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/politics-politics-politics-justin-robert-young **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/216982580/9572a39f30cd800ee7303a5f426367e6.mp3 5 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 2 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. > I will say democratic house, slim republican senate. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **I think right now, I will say democratic house, slim republican senate.** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think right now, I will say democratic house, slim republican senate.** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: not settled yet - **I would also not be surprised if Ken Paxton and Ashley Henson and, you know, Roger Marshall, all these candidates, like you say, end up winning fairly comfortably in the end.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I would also not be surprised if Ken Paxton and Ashley Henson and, you know, Roger Marshall, all these candidates, like you say, end up winning fairly comfortably in the end.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I would also not be surprised if Ken Paxton and Ashley Henson and, you know, Roger Marshall, all these candidates, like you say, end up winning fairly comfortably in the end.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=gabe-fleisher